Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 06/29/2023

We have just a 5 game slate today, but it’s jam packed with offense, including a game at Coors Field. As always with these smaller slates we want to take stands on certain things and let them carry us to the top of the leaderboard. Today there is no lack of hard stands in this article so let’s dive in and Run Pure!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Max Scherzer- Obviously the clear chalk today. This is usually where I try everything in my power to find a reason to fade, but it’s difficult on this slate. The reason I think we need to eat this chalk has to do with his splits. Scherzer is getting hit hard by right handed bats and inducing weak contact to the lefties. At the same time, his swing and miss numbers are really good to the right handed bats, and just average to the lefties. This matchup with Milwaukee is unique and actually plays right into this, to make Max a comfortable chalk play. The Brewers that can hurt us are Yelich and Tellez, both who are from the left side of the plate where his splits are bringing weaker contact. Just about everyone else in this Brewers lineup will be right handed bats with a ton of swing and miss profiles and very little hard contact. Basically, Scherzers weakness in 2023 is also the weak part of this Brewers lineup, his strengths of no damage to lefties and strikeouts are also inflated for us with the Brewers. Clear SP1 here even though $11k is too steep for him.

Adam Wainwright- I’m only considering 3 pitchers today. Waino has not been good this season, but his splits are so egregious and this Astros team plays into it. With no Yordan, that leaves Kyle Tucker as the only left handed bat for Houston. Lefties have a .323 ISO and .490 WOBA on Waino this year. He is struggling to strikeout the lefties, he’s giving up 45% hard hits and tons of fly balls and line drives, but none of those stats matter today! 8 right handers in the Astros lineup means that we should focus on one side of the plate only. To righties a .144 ISO, .345WOBA, almost 40% ground balls, only 33% hard hits and WAY more swing and miss stuff. It’s night and day difference and I think a veteran like himself can work around Kyle Tucker here. I wanted to make Waino my number 1 just to show how confident I feel, but either way I love this as a pure matchup play that won’t be owned.

 

Other Options

Keaton Winn- Nobody on this slate looks appealing. Nobody. Chris Bassitt gets shelled by lefties and the Giants lineup will be chalked full of them, Tijuan Walker is a contact pitcher against a team with decent power playing in Wrigley with the wind blowing out. Emmett Sheehan is a rookie pitching in Coors, Kyle Hendricks just no thanks… so yes, Keaton Winn. He’s the minimum price of $4k on Draftkings today. This isn’t necessarily a play that I’m telling you will score 20 points today because he probably won’t, I am telling you that I don’t see many pitchers outside of Max Scherzer hitting 20 points today though and when I see that I’d rather get 9 points out of a $4k guy than 10 points out of a $9,600 Chris Bassitt. He’s expected to be limited so I don’t even think a win is a likely outcome, but the dudes name is Winn, I have a daughter named Wynn, we are all here for a big win, the Blue Jays don’t even know how to win anymore… so like why the hell not.

 

Stack Em 

Cardinals- JP France is getting crushed by righties. He can’t strike them out, he’s giving up 14% barrels, and 50% hard hits. Today Paul Goldschmidt, Wilson Contreras, Jordan Walker and Co EAT. It’s 98 degrees in St Louis and the fly balls France allows to righties is a sure fire disaster incoming. This actually looks contrarian because of a 5 game slate with Coors on it, but I’m prioritizing the Cards here. Feel free to mix in a lefty like Gorman for the Astros bullpen. 1-9 is in play!

Dodgers- Coors Field Dodgers against Chase Anderson. 1-9 are in play today. Over his career he’s been a reverse splits guy so righties look good with a career .831 OPS against them. So far this year though he’s giving up some hard contact to lefties as well so no real lean on who, just everyone.

 

Other Stacks

Giants- Lefties, lefties, more lefties, give me all the lefties.

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Chris Bassitt- I just can’t play this guy with his numbers against lefties. We saw Oakland bring up minor league guys just to they could stack the lineup with lefties against him and it worked. The book is out. 60% hard hits, 15% barrel rate, a .319 ISO. The baffling thing to me is that Adam Wainwright has these same kind of numbers against lefties, but he’s facing just 1 of them tonight, Bassitt is double the price and facing at least 6 of them, yet ownership will be all over Chris Bassitt. The numbers don’t always play out the way they should but these numbers are glaring and exactly how I want to take a stand and build tonight.

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