Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 06/27/2023

We have a massive 15 game slate on this fine Tuesday. Naturally, there’s a ton of great pitching on the board when there are 30 different teams to choose from, but it almost seems too obvious where the field is going thanks to some bad pricing today. I don’t typically focus on getting different when we have this many games, because ownership is always spread thin, but I do have some pretty big stands today, so let’s jump in.

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.


Pitching Core

Shohei Ohtani- Not only is Shohei likely the safest play on this slate, but he brings the most upside in this matchup with Chicago as well. It’s been pretty simple for me with Ohtani on the mound, if he’s pitching at home he is automatically on my list, if he’s pitching at home against a bad baseball team then he’s damn near a lock. I think ownership will be pretty even between Ohtani and Gausman as the top tier spends, but I certainly have to give the matchup edge to Ohtani here and that makes him my #1 tonight!


Kevin Gausman- Spending $11.3k and $11k on your pitchers to start your build has to make you sweat a little, but I’m really loving this build today. Gausman, much like Ohtani, brings huge upside with his splits when he’s pitching at home. Today the Giants are in Toronto, a team with plenty of swing and miss to attack. 6 of the 9 Giants projected for today have higher than a 20% k rate, then Gausman at home this year… 2.61 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a 12.3 K/9. Since everyone loves a narrative as well, this will be the Gas man’s first time squaring off with the Giants, who he said “never even offered me a deal” after his breakout season and playoff run with them 2 years ago. He clearly seemed offended when the Giants let him go.  If we can get the bats to fit then I want this big money pairing.


Gavin Williams- I won’t leave you with all expensive plays, although I do see a nice edge going that route today. Gavin Williams is the top prospect in the Guardians farm and he gave everyone a less than stellar first start last week against the Oakland Athletics. I like coming back to the well tonight against a Royals team that’s not much better. $5,900 is just too cheap for the potential in this arm. There’s no Salvador Perez in this Royals lineup and the first game jitters should be gone. He ended up settling in against Oakland and still gave us 84 pitches and almost made it 6 innings. The main reason for optimism is the 11.7 K/9 he had in the minors this season and I’m more than happy to hunt for that kind of production at this price.


Other Options

Zac Gallen- The spend up for pitching trend continues for me with Gallen. I mentioned home/ road splits for Ohtani and Gausman so we will do it with Gallen as well.. in fact his might be the best with a 1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 at Chase field this year. The matchup with Tampa Bay will make this an extremely low owned play. The Rays offense is loaded with talent, that can certainly pack a punch. The one negative in this Tampa attack is they like to strikeout. This plays well into our favor for a guy like Gallen who clearly isn’t allowing people on base at home with that 0.85 WHIP and now gets a + strikeout matchup to boot. If you need an $1,100 savings from the big 2, or just want the low ownership this is one of my favorite plays.


Martin Perez- Not much to discuss here, other than a veteran pitching at home against the Detroit Tigers. He’s $5,700 and he’s going to pitch 6+ innings. If he can strikeout 4-5 guys and get the win this will be very optimal.


Stack Em

Guardians- The Guardians practically own Brady Singer and these are the perfectly priced bats to fit our expensive pitching. Kansas City has been referred to as mini Coors all year because of the crazy amount of runs being scored here and today is another almost 90 degrees day in the Midwest. Lefties are the favorite to target against Singer and there’s no lack of them in this Cleveland lineup. Bo Naylor is a cheap leftie playing catcher, Josh Naylor leads all American League 1st baseman in RBIs somehow, Josh Bell is a blind squirrel and occasionally finds a nut, Andres Giminez brings steal upside with his power, Steven Kwan gets on base and can steal, and then of course Jose Ramirez. 1-9 is in play here.


Mariners- The Mariners might be waking up. This team has struggled to hit all season but they have now scored 8+ runs in 3 of their last 5 games. Jake Irvin and the Nationals bullpen won’t be the ones to slow them down. Lefties are crushing Irvin which is ideal for my builds. Cal Raleigh, Jared Kelenic, Mike Ford, and even Kolten Wong are all back end of the lineup guys with very affordable tags tonight. Love this spot for the Mariners to keep rolling.


Rangers- If I don’t care about salary then this would be number 1 team today. We watched 2 pitchers leave yesterday game with injuries in the first 2 innings for the Tigers. Meaning that Matt Manning will sort of be left out to dry here against one of the best offenses in the game for his first start since April 11th. We all know the story of this Rangers team and their bats at home. This team can hang 10+ on anyone and now you have a taxed bullpen for Detroit that used 6 arms in yesterdays game. Manning isn’t good and these arms to follow him will likely be even worse, making this a juicy spot for the Rangers.


Other Stacks

Athletics- Hear me out, Brito is not good. Even a mini stack makes sense here. He’s got glaring reverse splits where the righties are just crushing him. It’s hard not to be intrigued by some of these guys when we are looking for salary relief. We have seen the upside in Brent Rooker earlier this year, we know Esteury Ruiz is stealing 2 bags every time he gets on and even Shea Langeliers has some pop from the right side as a catcher. You can fill in with one of these thumping lefties like JJ Bleday, Seth Brown or Ryan Noda and boom you’ve got the cheapest stack on the planet. The key with this stack is really just hoping Oakland can grab a decent lead because you don’t want to see the good arms in this Yankees bullpen.

Dodgers- Lefties are the way to attack Seabold so all of them are in play. I guess everyone is in play because this is Coors Field, but honestly I wouldn’t be stacking here if this were played in LA and that leads me to believe I’ll likely be fading this game entirely. 7.5 runs is an insane total.


Key Fades and Favorites 

Bryan Woo- This play is getting way overhyped. This kid obviously has some swing and miss stuff to write home about and that is huge for DFS so I get it. What’s not huge in DFS is bad chalk, and this is exactly what I’m seeing here.  The Nationals strike out fewer than ANYONE in baseball. ANYONE. A ceiling game with that fact alone being mentioned is pretty unlikely. Now, in an extremely short sample size of 23 plate appearances vs Lefties, Woo has struck out a lot less than the righties, given up 13% walks, a .600 ISO and a 29% barrel rate. I’m not going to sit here and act like those 23 plate appearances means this guy sucks against lefties, but it does mean we should pump our brakes a little. He’s a rookie, and this Washington team is so pesky, they just don’t strikeout. They will also bring at least 5 lefties to the plate tonight and id honestly rather stack against Woo than play him here.


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