Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 06/15/23

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge. Let’s dive into this 7 game slate!

 

Pitching Core

Sonny Gray- Best play on the state by far. I could simply say it’s a RHP at home vs the Tigers and wrap this up, but I’ll give you more reason to get excited about this chalk play. Sonny Gray has been elite at home, 1.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 10.7 K/9. His season numbers also reflect some major traditional splits. Gray is striking out 33% of righties with a ton of swinging strikes and just a 0.056 ISO. The Tigers are projected to have 6 righties in this lineup today and all the stars seem aligned for a smash performance here.

Logan Allen- The Padres seem to be heating up, so I guess proceed with caution, but I’ve actually picked on them vs lefties a couple times this year and it’s paid off. Allen brings some salary relief on a pitching slate that doesn’t offer much of it. He’s a K per inning guy that doesn’t give up a lot of walks, and he’s went 6+ innings in 4 straight starts. The Guardians need some innings out of him today after 2 straight days of 4 innings or less out of their starters. I wouldn’t say that they will leave their rookie out to dry here, but it’s going to take some serious damage for them to go back to the pen in their first series of this west coast road trip. I honestly think we get 7 innings here with plenty of K’s to get the job done, and a win is certainly on the table with Ryan Weathers starting on the other side. He’s also been insanely good on the road in this short sample size with a 1.18 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9.

 

Other Options

MacKenzie Gore- Gore has been pretty impressive this year for the Nationals, 4.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 69 innings. I mentioned the other day when one of my key fades was the Astros vs Patrick Corbin, who only allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in his 5 innings of work, that this Astros team right now just doesn’t scare me. No Yordan Alvarez is a really big deal when Jose Altuve has been in and out of the lineup, Alex Bregman has been terrible, and Jose Abreu is protecting your only other good bat in Kyle Tucker. I will note that Abreu is playing better of late though. Gore has been elite on the road compared to home, and he is actually reflecting reverse splits this year and that makes this matchup even more appealing. Kyle Tucker should be the only lefty in this lineup and we are going to coast with Gores 29%K rate against these righties that just aren’t bringing much pop this year vs LHP.

 

Stack Em

Braves- The Braves bring the 2nd highest total on the slate, but you’ll see in my key fades that I’m not loving the highest total Astros here. I also think the popular build today will include Sonny Gray and one of the 3 pitchers priced above him. You can easily fit these guys with the Astros today, what you can’t do is fit them with a big Braves stack who get a lefty at home. I usually side with Big T who never stacks against Kyle Freeland, but Freeland has actually been worse on the road away from Coors field this year and he’s giving up 2.1 HR/9 in those games. The bvp looks pretty good as well if you’re into that. At the end of the day It’s the Braves against a mediocre lefty and that makes them the highest upside team on this slate by far.

Twins- Mathew Boyd is a decent pitcher, but there’s not much to love for bats on this slate and we have to pick our poison. Carlos Correa is one of my favorite plays from this game, he’s been very mediocre this year but he’s actually finding the barrel 16% of the time against lefties. Shortstop is always a position to get right and I feel confident here. I want to play Byron Buxton because he’s one of my favorite players, but god is he awful vs LHP. He’s also just 2-24 against Boyd. If he’s going to be popular I’ll definitely do a Twins stack that avoids him. Kyle Farmer, Royce Lewis and Ryan Jeffers at catcher are the main pieces sticking out to me. Boyd offers plenty of hard hits and the weather is good for bats today in Minnesota.

 

Other Stacks

Guardians- I’m certainly intrigued here because Ryan Weathers to me is the worst pitcher on this slate. Over the last 2 weeks the Guardians seem to be figuring it out a little at the plate so I’m bullish on the Tribe here. This build will be nice because you can fit Jose Ramirez with a couple cheap bats against the lefty. My build would start with Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell who are actually decent bats against LHP, they are also both switch hitters with no pinch hit risk. After that I really like Mike Zunino at catcher. Weathers is packing just a 13% K rate vs righties this year and that’s always been Zuninos weakness. He brings a 13% barrel rate, 40% hard hits and great fly ball and line drive numbers vs lefties. I think the Guardians avoid the sweep today and they will need a couple runs to do it.

Dodgers- Dylan Cease can be a good pitcher at times, but this matchup is brutal. Cease gives up a TON of hard hits and he walks a lot of guys as well. The Dodgers hit the ball hard and they draw a lot of walks. A 5 run total here shows that they expect the Dodgers to do some damage here and I’m in agreement. The only stat sticking out to focus on is 48% ground balls to righties, granted that’s mixed with a whopping 65% hard hit rate. So I want guys from the right side in my stack that get the ball in the air. JD Martinez and Chris Taylor are those guys. Mookie and Will Smith hit the ball on the ground often so everyone else I want will be lefties!

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Astros- I mentioned Gore as a pitching core so it’s no surprise the Astros land here for me when they are expected to be one of the more popular stacks.

Dong calls- I’m going with Carlos Correa here and I want to give you Mike Zunino as well, but the Padres only let Weathers pitch 3 innings in his last start and that could mean only 1 at bat for Zunino against the guy I want to target him against. I don’t think he’s a pinch hit risk that early, but I know he sucks against righties.

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