Tabor’s Takes – MLB Breakdown – 06/13/23

A nice 14 game baseball slate ahead of us and some weather concerns to boot. This is one of the better pitching slates of the year so I think it’s important to be meticulous in these spots. I hope this article helps you get to the top of the leaderboards tonight!

Remember, I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.


 

Pitching Core

 

Pablo Lopez- Pablo is a strikeout machine these days, averaging 10.9 K/9 which is the 8th highest in the league so far. He’s also just the 8th most expensive pitcher on this slate, which makes him way too cheap at $8,800. He faces the Brewers who just got swept by the Oakland Athletics and scored just 9 runs in the series against some of the leagues worst pitching. 6 of those 9 in the final game with some garbage time runs. I love the matchup because López is sporting a 32.8% K rate with 46% ground balls against righties and this Brewers team will be bringing 6 right handers to the plate. This is a great place to start our builds today.

Jameson Taillon- I’m really not sure if I’ve ever pitched this guy in my life. It seems like for years he’s been over priced, maybe just because he was a Yankee. Today tells a much different tale for me though. He’s averaging nearly a strikeout per inning which is something we always want for DFS, he threw 104 pitches in his last outing which is another thing we like to check off the list. It doesn’t appear that his stuff has diminished and while his xERA of 5 isn’t great, it’s still not over 7 like his ERA! He’s left a whopping 53% of runners on base which is 20% lower than his career numbers. Basically if you draw a walk on Jameson Taillon this year you have a 50% chance of scoring. Those numbers are just crazy. I’m not saying that this is all bad luck, because it’s pretty clear he’s not been his best this year, but some progression is certainly on its way and what better time than when he’s priced at $5,700 facing the Pirates at home. I absolutely love the potential for Taillon to right the ship here. *** a lot of rain to keep an eye on here***

Max Scherzer- I honestly wrote Max up in my other options pool below and I just couldn’t do it, this guy belongs in the core. Lopez is my first guy in today, then depending on the stacks I fall on I will be paying up for Max here, or paying down for Taillon. The battle of New York kicks off today and a few things really stick out. The series is being played at Citi Field, the home of the Mets and one of the most friendly pitchers parks in all of baseball. The Yankees are also without Aaron Judge, which honestly makes this team terrible offensively. Max is coming off 2 straight games of 30+ DK points and was well on his way to a third after pitching a beautiful 5 innings with 10 strikeout against the Braves last week. It ended up crumbling in the 6th and he gave up 5 ER. This Yankee team is not the Atlanta Braves though and Scherzer should be $11k+ here, instead he’s under $10K and a great play.

 

Other Options

Jack Flaherty- Another guy that has a long leash and plenty of swing and miss in his game. This is as much of a low ownership tournament play that you’ll find. Flaherty has struggled with walks this year and this Giants team takes a ton of walks. But, they also strikeout a bunch. Flaherty either ends with 30+ today or he gets us 5 points and struggles all day with runners on. I like this is a low owned play with as much upside as anyone today if you land in the mid range.


 

Stack Em

 

Reds- Lyles is giving up a ton of homeruns, it’s not really anything new as he’s been doing this for years now. This Reds team is a lot of fun right now and I’m going to jump on it. This game is really appealing today all around but the Royals have been bad vs lefties and that’s got me leaning to the Reds.

Rays- One of my favorite spots tonight. The Rays are not playing the same way they did to start the season, but they are still elite with the bats and the Athletics are still not good at pitching. I think this is a really low owned spot tonight with so many other options and they get overlooked. I know the ballpark doesn’t play up for hitters but neither does the Trop and the scenario far out ways it.

Phillies- Arizona is one of the best hitters parks on this slate and you have Zach Davies on the mound. The Phillies are also getting hot right now and it’s hard to imagine Davies putting a stop to it. Righties have the advantage here with his reverse splits, bud there’s no way you’re keeping Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber out of your pools. Anyone can hit a dong on Davies.

Angels- Cody Bradford and a good chance he’s followed by a guy making his debut. I’ll side with Ohtani and Trout in these scenarios every time. Fill it in with some cheap pieces and this really isn’t a bad way to stack with some serious power.

 

Other Stacks

Dodgers- I always like low owned Dodgers and tonight should be one of those spots. Lance Lynn’s name and the abundance of bats on this slate will keep people away, but it shouldn’t. Lynn is getting ROCKED by lefties this year, to the tune of a .362 average and 12 homeruns already. Max Muncy is one of my favorite homerun calls today.


 

Key Fades and Favorites 

 

Hunter Brown- I’ve been against picking on these Nationals all year, if you’re reading this I can almost guarantee you’ve been burnt pitching against them already. This team just doesn’t strikeout, they have the lowest K rate in all of baseball and it makes them pesky. What I don’t like in this matchup is that Hunter Browns hard hit rates are some of the highest in all of baseball, and he walks guys often. When you mix that with a team that doesn’t swing and miss I just can’t see any upside for the most expensive pitcher on the slate.

Astros- I’m one of the biggest fans of stacking against Patrick Corbin, I just don’t see a way to do it with the Astros though. Dubon is one of the lowest upside lead off hitters you will find, Bregman has been terrible all season yet he’s almost $5k, Tucker is left on left even though he’s pretty good against lefties, Jose Abreu is one of the last people I’d want in my stack because he’s also really bad and when he does hit it’s ground balls, Jose Altuve has hardly been on the field this year, and I’ll pass on playing roulette between Diaz, McCormick, Meyers and Maldonado. I guess I’m ok with a mini that includes Altuve and Tucker, but I’m just not as excited as usual to pick on Patrick Corbin here

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