Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 06/06/23

A nice 12 game Tuesday slate. I actually prefer these bigger slates, because chalk isn’t as chalk as it should be and your contrarian stands are practically untouched. I don’t put as much focus on being different in spots like this, I honestly just play what I like and if it’s contrarian then cool.

Remember, I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now, and over $500k in 2021. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

Pitching Core

Mitch Keller- 4th in the Majors right now in strikeouts, only behind Strider, Gausman and Ohtani. Pretty insane considering the Mitch Keller we have watched the last few years. His surface numbers back all of it up and he’s just flat out dealing so far in 2023. Today he gets the Oakland Athletics at home. This is such a don’t overthink it spot on a 12 game slate. I mention that because ownership naturally spreads out here. Mitch Keller in this exact spot yesterday would have been 60%+ on that slate. Today id be shocked to see 30%. A clear SP1 to start our builds.

Kevin Gausman- He’s just so good this year I can’t ignore it. Houston blew up yesterday and I think that keeps ownership down, but the thing is this Astros lineup is really weak around the middle. Are we afraid of Dubon leading off? McCormick, Julks, Maldonado, Even Peña? I love this play today because Gausman is even more elite against the lefties and Alvarez and Tucker are the only 2 players that scare me in this lineup. Stars seem aligned with all of this and the fact Gausman has been untouchable at home.

Other Options

James Paxton- I’m a Guardians fan and I don’t typically pick on them but they are bad. This team just can’t hit and their power numbers decrease even more vs LHP. The only reason to not pitch against the Guardians is their lack of strikeouts, they strikeout the 2nd least in all of baseball, only behind the Nationals. Regardless, Paxton has looked elite, Progressive field is much friendlier to pitchers than Fenway, his K/9 sits at 12.8 which would tie for 2nd in the big leagues behind only Spencer Strider if he had the innings to qualify. $8,600 with little to no risk of damage and this K upside at low ownership is something I look for on a large slate.

James Kaprielian- I have Pittsburgh written up as a stack as well but sometimes that’s DFS. I’m ok either way here, Kaprielian is only $5,200 and you have to like what that gives you with the bats today. You never know what Pirates team is showing up and this guy is giving us a K per inning so far this year. He’s also given up 34 runs in 37 innings though. Risky for sure, but 20 points here with all the bats you can get could be the ticket.

Stack Em

Dodgers- Great American Ballpark has always been a great place to hit. The homerun factor in this park is what draws our DFS plays each year. 325 in right and 370 in right center always draws me to the lefties and the Dodgers have some good ones. It’s no surprise that guys like Freddy Freeman rake at this ballpark. Will Smith is the one that surprised me with a .762 slugging% in 21 at bats here so I love using my catcher spot on him. Overall this is going to be a very popular play but Luke Weaver is not good and the Dodgers handle pitchers of this caliber pretty consistently and now get a park boost to boot.  The weather is hot and the wind is blowing out.

Rangers- The Rangers have been elite vs LHP this year. 3rd in OPS and 4th in SLG%. Yesterday I was pretty hard on the fade here because I thought ownership would flock after their hot weekend in a matchup that really wasn’t jumping out on paper. I guess I like playing the back and fourth game in these spots where they were chalk yesterday and laid an egg… so today I’m ready to come back. The way I want to attack with this team is pretty different though. I don’t see much ownership here regardless, but the back end of this lineup will damn near be untouched and these are actually the guys carrying the impressive numbers vs LHP. Shockingly, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia do not kill lefties, then Corey Seager and Nate Lowe are on the wrong end of the platoon advantage. It’s actually the guys like Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Duran, and Taveras that are contributing in a big way against the lefties. I think this is the way to pitch who we want and still feel confident with an affordable stack.

Angels- Going to need some salary relief at pitcher if I go here paired with the Dodgers or Coors. I love the Angels against Hayden Wesneski as a low owned, massive upside stack here. Worst case, I love Ohtani to get a hold of a few here. This guy is getting smashed by lefties and is only striking out the righties. Put Ohtani in a spot with little swing and miss and a guy allowing of 40% hard hits and fly balls. Yea, dong town.

 

Other Stacks

Pirates- There are some really cheap bats here. Big Jacks is only $3,000 projected to hit cleanup, Marcano projected to lead off at $2,100 at SS. Now account for James Keprelian and the leagues worst bullpen in Oakland and we have to love this Pirates stack. My build today is going to start with Dodgers and Mitch Keller, then I’m going to decide on my SP2 and see which of these other options can fit around it.

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Coors- There’s some rain in the forecast and enough to put this game at risk. I’m not going to call this a complete fade at all, but I’m going to keep a close eye on ownership here. I like the Dodgers more than either of these teams accounting for matchups, park and everything, but if the Giants get no ownership here because of the fear of rain and because everyone’s playing it safe with the Dodgers then hell yes I’m prioritizing the Giants as my #1 over LA. The Dodgers could easily score 5-6 runs while the game in Coors plays and puts up 20+ runs. We’ve seen it a million times and we can’t let a team facing Dinelson Lamet go unowned tonight. I’ll update in the discord before lock which way I’m going officially so make sure to subscribe if you haven’t!

Freddy Peralta- $7,700 seems too cheap for what we know can be an elite strikeout arm. I just can’t pitch him against this disciplined Orioles team. He walks too many people and the Orioles are a patient bunch. I think he’s a very popular pairing today and I’d rather do the double spend or go all the way down to Kaprielian.

Elly De la Cruz- I’ll probably have this guy tonight. He’s one of the better prospects the Reds have had in a while, draws comparisons to O’Neill Cruz of the Pirates and he’s a lefty! Where was this fricken dude yesterday when they gave us a lineup of all right handers. Either way he’s $2k at SS in a hitters park that favors lefties against a not so scary Tony Gonsolin. That’s enough checked boxes for me.

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