Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 06/01/23

Today is perfect. 4 game day slate in MLB, then shift focus to Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight. My strategy on these small slates is pretty simple: Identify the good and bad chalk and think outside of the box.

Remember, I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now, and over $500k in 2021. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Kevin Gausman-  I don’t think he’s the one to fade. $10.6k is actually too cheap considering just how good Gausman has been. I always preach his dominance at home since his move to Toronto and Milwaukee isn’t a team that you run from. Easy SP1.

Jesus Lezardo- The Padres have been one of the worst teams vs LHP this year. 142 Strikeouts in 542 at bats. A team .415 slug, and .240 avg. Lezardo is a guy over 10 k/9 this year and dominating at his friendly home ballpark. This lineup also sucks today.

 

Other Options

Max Scherzer- You have to believe the old Max is still in there and will come out one of these days. The Phillies are scary though because they have a bunch of power left hand hitters to throw at him and he has yet to be dominant all year. He’s pretty far behind my top 2.

 

Stack Em

Blue Jays- Freddy Peraltas name should keep ownership somewhat in check here, but he has not been good. Righties are tuning him up with hard hits and that’s exactly when I want to attack with these Blue Jay bats. George Springer, Chapman and Vladdy stick out as my 3 man stack, they all crush fastballs and Peralta throws it over 50% of the time to righties. On paper this looks like an absolute smash spot for Toronto.

Diamondbacks- This looks to be “good chalk”. They have the highest implied total on the slate and it’s against Chase Anderson and the Rockies terrible pen. Anderson has been a reverse splits pitcher his entire career and it’s trending that way again this year with more hard hits and less strikeouts to righties. Christian Walker hit a home run yesterday and stands out here. I think my favorite way to attack this spot is to get a little different. The Diamondbacks big bats are all switch hitters or left handed with the exception of Walker. So I want to play these lower owned guys at the bottom that actually fit the build to attack Anderson. At SS a right handed hitting Geraldo Perdomo is having a solid year and will be lower owned, at catcher the right handed Gabriel Moreno another guy quietly killing it this year who plays at another tough position to roster, but fits the idea of attacking Anderson with Righties. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, again a righty who actually hits RHP better than LHP in his career and gets a reverse split right handed pitcher today. I love spending up on Toronto and attacking this way with the chalky Diamondbacks.

 

Other Stacks

Rockies- It’s hard to even type this after they let Tommy Henry dominate them last night, but it’s baseball and it’s a new day. Zach Davies is one of those guys I’ve picked on for years and we aren’t about to stop now. He has no swing and miss to his game and although Arizona isn’t Coors Field, it’s certainly a park for hitters. This is another guy that leans to reverse splits so I want more righties, but everyone is in play here. Kris Bryant, Elias Diaz, and Ryan McMahon all have 2 homers and a good average against Davies.

Marlins- You’ll see why down in the key fades section, but if you want to get really off the wall here I think this is a great way to do it.

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Joe Musgrove- This is the slate of reverse splits I guess and this just doesn’t matchup well for Musgrove who looks like he’s going to be very popular today. Miami is very right hand heavy these days and the lefties that do have a chance of playing are Luis Arraez, last years batting title and a guy who just doesn’t strikeout, Joey Wendle, and Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez brings a ton of pop and Wendle is another vet that just doesn’t swing and miss. The ballpark is good but so is Musgroves home stadium so I’m not factoring that as much. The matchup here just isn’t good so I’m glad to fade.

Mets- I’d imagine the 2nd highest total on the slate will bring ownership here. Taijuan Walker is an ex Met that used to love pitching at this ballpark. It’s a division rival in a major pitchers park and I’d just rather not attack here

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