Tabor’s Takes – MLB Breakdown – 05/30/23

Finally a nice 13 game slate on a Tuesday. I’ve been diving in hard all day because I love this $555 tournament over on DraftKings. I have some pretty strong stands today that I’m feeling good about so check out the key fades and favorites. Let’s get to it!

Remember, I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now, and over $500k in 2021. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.


Pitching Core

Yusei Kikuchi- One of my trends this year has been picking on the Brewers with left handed pitching. They have the lowest team WOBA for their matchup of anyone on the slate outside of Oakland and they bring the most swing and miss on the entire slate. I’m seeing a team that doesn’t take walks, that doesn’t get on base, and they give us the most upside because of their inability to make contact with LHP. This is as much of a nut spot for Kikuchi that we will see all year. I also like that we have soon good home splits for Kikuchi in his time in Toronto. His WHIP at home since the move sits at 1.103 and this year he’s striking out 12 per 9 innings in that short sample size. Every box of mine is checked here and he’s my first person in today.

Zac Gallen- Another guy with home splits that are glaring. Since 2021 Gallen is sporting a 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 at home. This year in 35 innings he has an insane 0.77 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and the K/9 sits at 12.1. Factor all of that and now look at a matchup with the Colorado Rockies. No CJ Cron, a team ISO of .151, a projected lineup K rate of 24%. Gallen has also been pretty dominant in his history against this division opponent. I was stunned to see that he wasn’t the highest priced option on this slate and with such a big slate I’m not worried about ownership at pitcher today.


Other Options

Bryce Elder- This is basically a matchup play. Elder has been solid all year and he gets the Athletics in a pitchers park. Win and quality start seem even more likely after a Braves loss last night.

Brayan Bello- His price went up, but hardly worth nothing because $700 wasn’t enough. I’ve been a believer in this kid all year and been benefiting from it lately. Bello has somehow pitched better at home in his young career so I’m not as worried about Fenway as I typically would. The matchup with Cincinnati is the reason to get exposure here.


Stack Em

Dodgers- I swear they always get forgotten on slates like this. So many games and no lineup till after lock gives us a chance to attack a great matchup. Hello Jake Irvin. It’s only a 54 plate appearance sample size, but lefties have an insane 56% fly ball rate on 40% hard hits so far on this guy. That’s enough to tell you that Max Muncy hits one 450 ft tonight. I like everyone though. 15.8% walks so far and now this poor guy has to go to LA to see the Dodgers. Walk, Walk, lefty dinger on numerous occasions is in my projection for tonight. Max Muncy and James Outman are my 2 favorite bats.

Cardinals- If you played them yesterday with their massive 6 run total just to be shut out and almost no hit then I understand your anger and I want you to visualize them scoring double their implied total today because it’s happening. Zack Greinke and the Royals bullpen are always what the doctor ordered after an embarrassing outing. The Cardinals seem to dominate these style of pitchers who throw for weak contact and don’t have any strikeout potential. Greinke is a completely different pitcher away from Kaufmann Stadium. He’s just “bad” at Kaufmann, on the road he’s a complete dumpster fire. Redemption for the Cards tonight.

Rays- I’m so glad Kyle Hendricks is back off the IL so I can go back to picking on him. Specially with this years Tampa Bay Bombers. Lefties have always tagged Hendricks and the Rays have some good ones: Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Taylor Walls look juicy with their fly all rates in this spot and I’m completely fine stacking anyone 1-9.


Other Stacks

Braves- The Atlanta Braves play the Oakland Athletics…

White Sox- I’m still a believer in the “White Sox vs Lefties” trend that has won me hundreds of thousands of dollars the last several years. The White Sox kind of suck now, but good thing Tyler Anderson does as well.



Key Fades and Favorites 

Shane Mclanahan- The Cubs have been another team that I’ve picked on a bit lately because of their injuries and high K%. Today isn’t one of those days. I prefer to pick on the Cubs with right handed pitching because this team can actually rake against the lefties. The swing and miss also drops pretty substantially as a team against lefties as well. I know the wind is blowing in but I’m not paying $11.4K for a mediocre matchup at best.

Nestor Cortes- Why does everyone insist on playing this guy? Cortes has yet to eclipse 21.9 DK points all year and now it’s going to happen on the road against the Mariners? I don’t think so. The Mariners can swing and miss a ton so if we were projecting 2% ownership then my take here would be completely different, but it looks like some chalk will land here as always and I just have no interest against the power these Mariners bats bring against LHP.

Red Sox- I’m torn here. Ben Lively is pitching for the Reds and this is a guy that couldn’t stay in the big leagues after 2017-18. He always got hit around and honestly just wasn’t good. Now that he’s back he’s looked really good. Some things that stick out, he’s made 4 appearances and 3 came against the Cardinals, Yankees and Mets. All 3 of those games were at home in the hitters paradise of GABP. His one other appearance came on the road against the Rockies. So in what’s about to be his 5th start he’s only pitched in GABP, Coors and now Fenway… and this dude just keeps dominating. He’s only allowed 5 runs in those games mentioned. He’s not getting hit hard, he’s not walking people… I just don’t know. My take here is just to give him another start or two and see if this is real. I really don’t want to risk stacking against it on a 13 game slate though with plenty of other great spend up spots for hitters.

Dodgers Lefties- I mentioned in the Stacks chart how great of a spot this looks to be. I want all of them.

Teoscar Hernandez- Him and Cortes were in the same division so he’s seen plenty of him and had some success. .400 BA with a double. I think he hits a bomb tonight.

Jose Ramirez- Crushes Kyle Gibson

Diamondbacks- I typically follow Big T here and don’t stack against Kyle Freeland, but if you’re a BVP fan then you’ll love what Arizona does to this guy.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *