Tabors Takes- Contrarian TNF Showdown

What’s up RPS, are we ready for another stinker of a Thursday night game? This week should be better than the Steelers- Patriots game from last week, still this is a bad Raiders team welcoming a Herbert-less Chargers team to Vegas tonight. The good news is that we don’t have just a 30 point total again. 

Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game.

Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. Today we have the Raiders favorited at -3 at home, the total sits at just 34.5. Most books have assumed the absence of Herbert from the open so these lines have not been fluctuating much. I personally love this over. While it’s not as low as last weeks 30 point line, these defenses are FAR worse than the Patriots and Steelers. While the offenses, the quarterbacks especially, are equally as incompetent, the star power including Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler are far superior to anyone we watched last Thursday night. I expect some points and I expect those mentioned stars to shine.

Notable Injuries: 

We should all know by now that Justin Herbert is out for the rest of this season. Easton Stick takes over in his place and he didn’t look too bad when he entered the game last week. 13/25 for 179 with a lost fumble. I’m not fading any quarterback against this Raiders defense so he’s surely in play. 

Keenan Allen- This opens up a ton of upside for the Chargers pass catchers. Joshua Palmer comes in as the most expensive on DK at $6,200 and they are all in play. Stick even targeted Gerald Everett a healthy amount last week and I think he’s a great play with Allen’s targets opening up this offense. 

Josh Jacobs- He’s still listed as questionable but we are going to plan for him to miss as it seems likely at this point in the day. This obviously makes Zamir White ($3,000) and Ameer Abdullah ($4,800) great value plays.

Davante Adams- Listed as questionable but expected to play.

Captain Plays 

Davante Adams- If Josh Jacobs is out then we have nobody else worth getting involved on this Raiders team. This should force them to get creative and find any way possible to get and keep Adams involved throughout this game. Remember they are 3 point favorites with the assumption that Jacobs isn’t playing, and that tells me the Raiders should be able to move the ball tonight. 

Gerald Everett- He saw 8 targets last week and the absence of Keenan Allen is only going to help in that regard today. Young quarterbacks tend to lean on their big bodied tight ends, big targets, safety valve type guys that make uncomfortable guys comfortable. With the years of experience under Everett’s belt, I think he’s a big part of this game plan today. Brandon Staley is as much on the hot seat as anyone and I don’t expect the Chargers to lay over and die now that their season is over. 

Easton Stick- I love when we get these young quarterbacks at cheaper than usual QB salary and low ownership. I’d be shocked if Stick sees more than 6% ownership at captain today and he looks more than capable of giving us a Jake Browning like performance from last weeks showdown. I’m a big fan of this Chargers passing game today so I’m certainly interested in the guy throwing the ball.

Flex Plays

Chargers Receivers- I don’t feel overly confident about any of the 3. All of my interest is with Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnson, and Jaylen Guyton. However, there’s a problem with each one of them. Palmer hasn’t played since week 8, Johnston is Mr. Inconsistent and has a legitimate shot at 2 targets with no catches any time he’s on the field, Guyton is the 3rd option and shouldn’t be on the field as much as these other guys. Because of this I want at least one of these guys in my lineup, but I’m not forcing more than that. I’m very pleased with Stick, Everett and whoever fits between these 3 to round up my Chargers stack. If you’re confident the Chargers win then I love this technique and adding in Austin Ekeler for a 4-2 build.  

Las Vegas Running Back- This is going to be a pivotal value piece tonight. White is the expected early down man and probably the touchdown guy, while Abdullah should get all the pass catching work from the backfield. My suggestion here is very simple… evaluate for yourself how you see the game script going. I like the over and I also like the Chargers to win. My game script is telling me to play the Chargers and run it back with pass catching options for the Raiders. Abdullah should get plenty of opportunities tonight and he gets my preference. 

Kickers- I’m not really on board with the defenses today, but kickers are fair game. Dicker the kicker gets my preferred vote.

Michael Mayer– The Chargers struggle with tight ends and a $3,200 price tag looks nice to me. We have seen Mayer have some solid games and I’m confident he can get us 10+ points at this tag. Once again, you tend to see young inexperienced quarterbacks lean on their tight ends and I’m sure one of these 2 show up tonight. 

Fades

Aiden O’Connell– This is really my only fade today. We have a ton of value and a ton of ways to get different with all of this opportunity so I want a large pool. O’Connell just doesn’t do anything for us fantasy wise, I suppose without Jacobs they could take off the training wheels and give him all he can handle, but this kid has started 6 games now and his best fantasy production only gave us 13 points. I see very little upside here and he’s been in the single digits scoring for 4 of his games. I’d have to imagine no running game without Jacobs could lead to even more struggles than usual.

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