Tabor’s Take MLB Breakdown 08/22/23

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and I feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Lucas Giolito- Probably my favorite arm today. This Reds team can bring some thump, but my goodness do they love to strikeout. I’ve mentioned before how elite Gios changeup is and it’s that type of pitch that strikes out the dangerous bats of De La Cruz and Joey Votto 3 times a piece. The matchup is dangerous of course, but I don’t think anyone has this much upside on this slate and at $9,100 I want all the exposure I can get.

Hogan Harris- I’m a big Hogan Harris guy, I should be embarrassed how many times I’ve written up this guy, but here we are again. Hogan gets us around a K per inning and he has a normal leash. Those 2 reasons alone are more then we can say about most guys in this $5K price range, we see a lot of openers and a lot of the Dallas Keuchel type who not only sucks but also can’t strike anyone out. Harris doesn’t fit in and that will continue to stand out to me here. We also get a matchup with the Royals, who I will admit have been on absolute fire for the last month, but I have picked on them all season long with left handed pitching and I’m not about to stop now. Harris has a 1.19 WHIP at home this year which gives me some optimism, the Royals strikeout a ton vs LHP, and the Oakland Coliseum should keep the ball in the yard for us. All we need is 15 out of Hogan here and I’ll always bet a ton of money against Zach Greinke on the road. The guy can’t pitch outside of Kaufmann and I think Harris gets a win to go with his 6 strikeouts today.

 

Other Options

Blake Snell- A top tier arm in a top tier spot against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins don’t really swing and miss much vs LHP so Snell gets left out of my core, but there’s not much power in this lineup and it’s Cy Blake. Snell has had an incredible year and I don’t think he slows down today, I would classify Snell as the safest play on the board today by far.

Jon Gray- This play has absolutely nothing to do with matchup and everything to do with salary. Pretty simply, Jon Gray shouldn’t be $6,700. I think $8,700 is the right price and that’s just too big of a gap for us to ignore here. If you want a reason to get excited for the matchup then I will say he’s always had large splits so guys like Christian Walker, Gurriel Jr, and Tommy Pham should be neutralized here for the most part. I’ve also noticed that Gray has been really hit or miss all season in large spurts. He started the year looking awful, then had 29, 21, 30, 27 and 41 point DK scores all in a row in May and June, then went on to get shelled in all of July, and now has 3 straight starts of 15+ points in August. It’s weird but he might be getting on another roll here and I’ll gladly buy low.

Bryan Woo- We just want word on pitch count here. Woo is coming off the 15 day IL with forearm inflammation. He threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session and didn’t require a rehab assignment, which is good, but at the same time we have to expect the Mariners to be cautious with a very promising rookie arm. The reasons to still consider him stand out. This kid can generate swing and miss, the type of upside that we want to target in DFS. He has very wide traditional splits, where he is dominating righty bats with weak contact and an elite 32% K rate. Lefties are a different story, but in this matchup that’s ok. The White Sox are a righty heavy team and almost all of their power comes from the right side where Woo should dominate. I’m just not concerned with guys like Yasmani Grandal, Oscar Colas, and Andrew Benintendi hurting us. I’d love it even more if we get 6 righties in this lineup, but my main concern here is pitch count so I want to keep an eye on the beat reporters tonight and just hope I can keep him in.

 

Stack Em

Braves- Tylor Megill is someone I stack against all the time and the Braves are the best team in baseball so of course I’m going back. I think the Braves burnt a lot of people last night, if you didn’t play Marcell Ozuna of course, and I think this guides the field to paying up at pitching today and not going to these big boys for bats. I want lefties against Megill all day who is giving up a career .306 batting average and .906 OPS against them. I’m ok with anyone here because I think the Braves roll after getting beat up on by this Mets team last night.

Dodgers- Progressive Field is a pitchers park so there’s no advantage there, but Noah Syndergaard should be advantage enough. We know they will be running every time they get on base and we know that Thor can’t miss any bats on top of that and that’s more than enough reason to stack here.

Pirates- From this point on you should be stunned if you don’t see a team facing Adam Wainwright on my stacks list. This is last years Patrick Corbin, and the year before that’s Dallas Keuchel, you get the picture. Waino is washed, but he’s still being thrown out there every 6 days to give us some DFS appeal. His numbers vs lefties are some of the worst numbers you’ll ever see. Big pack Jack Suwinski goes yard twice today.

Mariners- They are the hottest team in baseball, it feels like they have scored 10+ runs every day for a month now. They rested Julio last night so I thought maybe they would chill out. They didn’t. They tuned up this White Sox team with 13 runs. Mike Clevinger isn’t very good so I’m fine going back here and watching them continue to roll, but I’ll be honest in saying that it’s just because of their recent success.

Athletics- I mentioned how bad Zach Greinke is on the road and I’m definitely intrigued by how cheap this Athletics stack would fit for us tonight.

 

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