Tabor’s Take- Contrarian TNF Build

Thursday night football has been brutal the last several weeks. I think we have covered every unappealing team the NFL can offer. Steelers, Patriots, Raiders, and now we get the New York Jets and their putrid offense. If you like watching defense then this game is going to be for you. The Browns and Jets have two of the best in the league and I’m a Browns fan so I’m actually pumped for this one. The Browns can clinch a playoff spot at home for the first time in my lifetime!

Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game.

Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. The Browns are currently favored by 7.5. This line opened at -6 for Cleveland and the money is heavy on the Browns side, as reflected with the 1.5 point move. No major injury news that would affect the line or our builds!

Notable Injuries:

Aaron Rodgers for the Jets and the entire starting offense for the Browns. In all seriousness there’s nobody new missing.

Amari Cooper was a mid day Q tag. It’s never good to see this so monitor it. This would obviously give us some vale receivers for Cleveland and boost guys like Njoku, Moore and even Jerome Ford.

 

Captain Plays

Amari Cooper- This questionable tag makes me love this contrarian Captain play even more. I don’t think people are excited to pay this price at captain today. I’d be shocked if they chase his insane 55 DK point game from last week against Sauce Gardner and the Jets. This is also a weird stat, but Amari Cooper has extreme home/road splits since he’s joined the Browns. He’s significantly more productive at home in front of the dawg pound and I’m happy to pay this price.

Jerome Ford- The game log folks probably won’t be intrigued with his recent scores. The reason I’m intrigued is because of his targets in the passing game with Flacco. He has 23 targets in his last 5 which puts us at like 4-5 a game. He has plenty of touchdown equity with 7 and I love him today at this price.

Cedric Tillman- I’m all Cleveland at captain today which isn’t very contrarian, but I think the guys I like are different. I’d be stunned if any of these 3 are captained as often as David Njoku and Joel Flacco. Tillman saw a season high 73% of snaps last week and he’s outperforming Elijah Moore. He’s been steadily climbing every week and $3k is a beautiful tag for him here where the focus of this talented Jets defense should be on Njoku and Cooper.

 

Flex Plays

Garrett Wilson- The Browns linebackers are playing out of their mind so I prefer Wilson over Breece Hall in the passing game today. It’s hard to even count Hall as a running back looking at his game log. So many duds with 13 carries for 16 yards, 6 for 12, 7 for 25 etc. Despite the Browns defensive talent we have to attack somewhere and Garrett Wilson garners 28% of the targets against man coverage. The Browns run more man than anyone in the league. Easy choice here for me.

Joe Flacco- This guy is statistically the best QB in the NFL since he started for the Browns. Hard to expect that to continue forever, but I’m not about to fade him here. One of my first people in today, I just don’t love his upside against this defense as a captain play.

Greg Zuerlein- These defenses should limit both sides to some field goals. I’m much higher on Zuerlein because he’s their actual kicker. Cleveland just signed Riley Patterson this week because of an injury to Dustin Hopkins. I could see them going for it often on 4th downs tonight.

 

Fades

Browns Defense- $5,600 is a stupid price tag

Breece Hall- Go to my write up on Garrett Wilson

OTHER GREAT ARTICLES

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *