Super Bowl Showdown

It’s Super Bowl showdown time!! There’s no better showdown in sports and we have a hell of a game in front of us here. Can Taylor Swift and the Chiefs stop this daunting 49ers team? Can Usher erase the last terrible live performance we watched in a football game by Jack Harlow in Detroit? Will the Gatorade finally be clear?? I bet on this every year hoping they simply get the coach with water, thinking it’s an edge and it never fricken happens.. we are due! I honestly just had to google why I could bet on there being an Octopus at the game too? No idea that scoring a touchdown and the same player converting the 2 point conversion had a name. Anyways, let’s dive into the best sporting event of the year and make some money! 

Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game.

Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. This game has not had dramatic or really any changes to the lines. No major injuries, no major news, the stage is just set. I think It’s important to establish your thoughts on the outcome and build your lineups accordingly. Personally, I think SF -2 is stealing money. The Chiefs have looked like dog shit this season in comparison to their glory days. I get it, they have turned it on here when it matters most, but they are FAR less talented than this 49ers team. Fortunately, they own Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is a playoff choke artist, resulting in another Super Bowl appearance. I will not only be heavily invested in the 49ers in DFS, but my money will be all over this spread and plenty of alternates. Next up is the total of 47.5 which is less appealing to me from a betting standpoint. I don’t see this being a 27-20 type of game. I think this total either gets blown away or these teams don’t even come close to it. I could see low scoring with two elite defenses and offenses that could easily come out slow after the media week. I could also see a good ole fashioned shoot out with the talent on these offenses. My lean is definitely to hammer this under, but I’m not nearly as confident as just taking the Niners. Maybe your thoughts don’t align with me here and that’s fine, I still think it’s important to establish your predictions before you build.

Notable Injuries:

Jerick McKinnon- This is a really important one to watch. He’s $200 and the Chiefs staff trusts him a ton. Just a year ago, this guy was a huge part of their Super Bowl run. He’s been activated from IR and I expect him to play.

 

Contrarian Plays

49ers Defense- I hate playing defenses and kickers like the rest of us, but I definitely have some conviction here. This was one of the best all around units all season long, and they are absolutely loaded with talent. They have really disappointed in the playoffs though, after letting both Jared Goff and Jordan Love torch them in these first two games. I really think they come out and prove a point this week with absolutely no ownership at $4,400.

Kyle Juszczyk, Jerick McKinnon, Richie James- Juszczyk is $800 and a key player that sees the field constantly. This is the biggest game of the year, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a goal line attempt and/or  a few targets. We want the studs and the only way to get them is playing guys like this. I’m definitely prioritizing McKinnon if he plays in this super cheap range, but hell maybe I’ll run two of them in my single bullet and just load up. James is also an option at $400. He’s been seeing a pretty consistent 20-30% of snaps and while that’s not nearly as many snaps as MVS and Justin Watson, at least Richie James is actually talented. He also saw a target in the end zone last week.

Brandon Aiyuk- I’m not sure how contrarian he will be, but I think people will lean towards thinking Shanahan wants to get Deebo involved. This matchup favors Aiyuk by a long shot on paper though. This matchup is always easy for me, Aiyuk sees 27% of targets when facing man coverage, Deebo only sees 15%. In zone coverage Deebo sees 24% to Aiyuks 20%. This isn’t a one season glitch either, Deebo just isn’t targeted in man coverage. I’ll gladly take that disparity considering how much man coverage the Chiefs defense will throw at them. Only the Browns, Cowboys and Giants ran more man coverage than the Chiefs this year. My preferred pass catchers in this offense are ranked Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle then Deebo this week.

 

Fades

Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Kickers

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