We are four sleeps away from the greatest day of the year! We suffered through the Pro Bowl this weekend as it was the only bridge to this week, but that’s behind us and now we can focus on the big game.
Chiefs vs. Eagles
We’ve had some stinkers the past few years, but this matchup has the potential to be an instant classic. The Eagles are bringing an all-time defense to this game, and they are going up against the most electric quarterback in the game.
It’s hard to make a read on this game, as the Eagles have yet to face an offense that compares to the Chiefs’, but the Chiefs haven’t seen a team like the Eagles.
While that’s the feature matchup of this game, the Eagles’ offense and the Chiefs’ defense cannot be underestimated. While they obviously need to be great to make it to this point in the season, it’s worth noting that the Eagles had the 3rd most offensive yards per game, and the Chiefs allowed the 11th fewest yards per game.
This will be a tight matchup, but the inexperienced team should not be the favorite. While there are concerns about Mahomes and his ankles, seeing how he played against Cincinnati, he should be fine, given another two weeks to recover. The Eagles’ defense will do its part, but that lends to an under, not an Eagles victory.
Kansas City (+104)
Under 50.5 (-105)
By this point, most people have their pick for at the spread and on the over/under. So while I don’t foresee changing anyone’s mind on that one, I do want to offer some insight to help you win money on other bets this Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 Passing Attempts & Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Since the 2020 Super Bowl, Mahomes has had 39+ passing attempts in six of the nine playoff games he’s played in. While this is already a solid play, the lack of options in the backfield will result in an extremely pass-heavy approach by the Chiefs. As a result, Mahomes will throw the ball close to 50 times.
With the Eagles knowing this, they will focus on their coverage in the secondary, which should give Mahomes plenty of opportunities to take off. His rushing prop is a strong option in this one as well.
Bettors are warned, though; those who took this prop were screwed in 2020. Some funky kneels at the end of the game lead to negative yardage and the under hit.
Jalen Hurts – Longest Rush: Over 13.5 Yards
Hurts crushed that number in half of his regular season games. In these playoffs, he accomplished a 14-yard run against San Fran, but not the Giants. However, this is the biggest game of the year, and a guy like Hurts will do whatever it takes to win. His total rushing yards is a solid play, but this one is even better.