Ravens (22.5) AT Jaguars (18.5)


Lamar Jackson 12.4K and the Ravens travel down to Jacksonville off an ugly win over the Rams last week. Jackson did have one of his best games of the year though throwing for over 300 yards and rushing for 70 yards totaling 35 DK points. Jacksonville has been a pass funnel defense this season and I expect another big game from the former MVP tonight. This Jags defense has allowed backup QBs to score 25+ the last 2 weeks and Stroud lit them up for 33 DK points 3 weeks ago. The Ravens need this win to hold onto the #1 seed with a difficult matchup next week vs SF. Lamar has a pass/rush prop of 269.5 yards and is +148 to score a touchdown.

Trevor Lawrence 10.4K was able to return last week after suffering an injury the week before but did look to be hampered some. Lawrence completed only 56% of his passes last week his lowest since week 2 and he threw 3 interceptions vs the Browns. The Jags will look to avoid their 3rd straight loss tonight at home vs the Ravens. Baltimore has only allowed 2 quarterbacks to total 20+ DK points this year and I do expect them to bounce back off the ugly performance last week. I will have Trevor in the Flex only and right at field average. Lawrence’s pass/rush prop is 246.5 yards.


Last week we saw Keaton Mitchell remain as a limit snaps guy when I expected to see his workload increase off the bye. Keaton totaled 54 yards on 9 carries and once again had a run of 20+ yards as he has in all 5 games played this year. Love the upside of Mitchell for showdown and has a fair price tag of 5.8K. I will be overweight on him in the Flex and have a sprinkle in the Captain spot. Gus Edwards was outsnapped by Mitchell yet again only playing 20 snaps last week. I will be underweight on the Gus Bus tonight. Justice Hill played 30 snaps and led the position but only had 1 touch on those 30 snaps a catch for 12 yards. Rush/rec props are Mitchell 60.5 and Edwards 36.5 yards.

Travis Etienne has scored in back-to-back games but has not rushed for more than 80 yards in his last 8 games and comes off 70 total rush yards combined in his last 2 games. Etienne does hold a solid pass game role catching 4 passes in his last 3 games. At 10.2K he is a tough click for me vs a Ravens team that has been good vs RBs this year. I will have Etienne projected for around 15 points and see where he lands. D’Ernest Johnson has now played 20+ snaps in 3 straight games and should get 5-8 touches but is priced up to 6.2K. I would much rather play some of these pass-catchers over him. Etienne has a rush/rec prop of 74.5 yards and Johnson has 22.5 yards. Etienne is the game favorite to score a touchdown at -115.


OBJ is priced up to 7.2K now his highest showdown price since week 1. Beckham has scored in 3 of the last 5 games and has scored in the double digits in 4 of the last 5 games. He continues to play limited snaps but when he is in Lamar is looking his way as he had 10 targets on 38 snaps last week. OBJ is a potential large field Captain and will be a guy I get over on in the Flex spot. Zay Flowers is priced at 8.8K and has scored in his last 2 games catching 11 passes on 18 targets in those 2 games. Flowers could see an end around or a rushing play called for him also. Agholor and Bateman are cheap flex options that could catch a touchdown. Receiving props: Beckham 39.5, Flowers 52.5, Bateman 23.5, and Agholor 13.5 yards.

Calvin Ridley heads the Jags wide receiver room at 8.6K. Ridley has been getting the targets but has been boom/bust with them as he has a few big games this year and then games like the last 2 weeks of 7 and 9 DK points. Calvin only caught 4 of 13 targets last week for 53 yards but holds the ceiling we want for a Captain play. Zay Jones has stepped up the last couple of weeks catching 5 passes each game and at 5.6K makes for a solid Flex option with upside. Parker Washington is a stud rookie out of Penn State and has seen his snaps increase the last 2 weeks playing over 40 each game. Washington caught 8 of 9 targets for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns in those 2 games. Washington is one of my favorite Flex plays tonight at only 4K flat. Receiving props Ridley 48.5, Jones 41.5, and Washington 19.5.


Isaiah Likely is in a great spot here tonight vs this pass funnel defense at 6.8K. Jacksonville gave up a big game to Njoku last week and has given up games of 19+ DK points 4 times this year to the tight end position. Isaiah filled in well for Andrews last year and comes off a strong 5 for 83 and a touchdown game last week. We should expect around 5-8 targets for Likely tonight. Likely has a prop of 33.5 yards tonight and is +285 to score a touchdown.

Evan Engram 7.6K is my favorite pass catcher on the Jag’s side of the ball and comes off a couple of big games scoring 23 and 32 DK points. Engram will see 7-10 targets in this game and has struggled against the TE position this year. The Ravens have allowed 11+ points to the position in 5 of the last 6 games. I will be overweight on Engram in the Flex and have some exposure to him in the Captain as well. Engram has a prop of 49.5 yards and is +235 to score a touchdown.


I don’t have too much conviction on both defenses but I would lean to the Ravens side as they have scored 12+ points in 3 of the last 5 games. I will be fading the or underweight on the Jags defense at 3.6K. Both kickers are firmly in play for me as values at 5.4K and 4.8K. I will be around 20-25% on the kickers and slightly over on the Ravens defense.


Lamar Jackson (CAPT) + Isaiah Likely + Evan Engram 5.6K left per position


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