Betting Spread – UAB -6.5. Total 47.5
On a Thursday night, we get South Alabama hosting UAB. Biggest piece of info on this game is the starting QB Tyler Johnston from UAB will be out for an extended amount of time from his non-throwing shoulder. So, in steps red-shirt freshman Bryson Lucero. While he does have some in-game experience, he will be a downgrade from Johnston. The question becomes how much of one?
Both teams come into this one off a bye week and I think it goes without saying that South Alabama has been a pleasant surprise to start. They beat up on Southern Miss, who was in borderline shambles week 1, but look, a win’s a win. Then, they go and push around Tulane for three quarters before surrendering a 24-6 lead late in the third quarter to lose 27-24.
South Alabama tends to use two quarterbacks, but may have found something with Chance Lovertich who was throwing dimes all over the field vs Tulane. This was extra necessary with how poor the run game performed in that one. Lovertich is a pocket passer while their other QB Desmond Trotter is more of a dual threat. I’d expect this team to ride the hot hand week to week, but Lovertich did look really good a few weeks back against a good defense. Here they see UAB who is quite stout on defense, but hasn’t showed last year’s prowess just yet. Only two games into the year, so we’ll cut them some slack.
On the UAB side, we know we get good defense, but the offense has been head scratching. Sure, they piled up yards against Central Arkansas, but what does that really mean? Then, they get stuck in quicksand vs Miami but that’s what we expected right? If you remember, we were on UAB’s last team total under in that game. UAB recovered a muffed punt inside the Miami 20 yard line, got sped up by a very fast Temp Miami team and still only mustered up 14 total points. Here, we get redshirt freshman Lucero in his first career start on the road under the lights in Primetime. I expect South Alabama to just load the box and dare UAB to bet them with Lucero’s arm. One thing we know about UAB is whether or not the run is working, they won’t go away from it. This team’s pace is also borderline molasses in terms of pace. I expect South Alabama to speed them up a bit, but the overall pace of the game should play down.
I’ll also touch on the weather here. There is a potential tropical storm including rain with some wind in the forecast. This only further muddies the water for the rookie’s starting debut and may add more of a forced rushing element into this game overall.
I look at this line as nothing short of a math line, but it assumes we get a competent version of Bryson Lucero. I’m not a fan of the overall spread here, as this has the makings of a real ugly game. I prefer the UAB Team Total UNDER vs the actual game under as South Alabama’s offense has showed life to open the season. I personally cannot trust a UAB offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the board to throw up 4 TDs against a team coming in with momentum and in poor weather. In team totals, you become a victim of game script, but I have the number a few points off. Don’t worry about not getting the “opener” as this adjusted after Tyler Johnston was ruled out. I personally don’t think it adjusted enough. I jumped on the UAB team total under as soon as I saw it and was able to grab under 27 -110 at PointsBet. I’m good for UNDER down to 26.5 -110, but that’s where my value ends. This doesn’t have the makings of a yardage piling up type of game, and ill placed turnovers would more than likely be required to push UAB’s team total over. I really like the spot for 0.5u as all my CFB bets have been at this.
Game Bet
UAB TT UNDER 27 -110 (PointsBet) – 0.5u
