Last week’s recap: 1-2-1 Matchups -1u
Season totals: Matchups 16-9-1 +5.33u
Daniel Berger +100 vs Webb Simpson *1 unit*
Berger ranks #1 in my model this week and is coming of a 2nd place finish last week making that his 5th top 5 finish in his past 6 events. The thing I like most about Berger is that he is a beast on the weekends and plays his best golf as the event moves on. He has shot sub 70 in 15 of his past 16 weekend rounds. Berger is 1st in scrambling, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, and 12th in FWYs gained. He is Top 10 in APP and T2G as well and is knocking on the door for a Major title here soon. Webb will be without his main caddy again this week, which will hurt him as he was the one that usually read the greens and told Webb what it was going to do. Last week Webb had some struggles putting and does not fare well on Bentgrass to start with. I do not like this course set up for him as well and Berger is playing possibly the best golf of his career.
Collin Morikawa -118 vs Hideki Matsuyama *1 unit*
Morikawa has possibly the most course history here at Harding Park as he went to college at UC-Berkley and played 10-12 times here throughout college. Collin really pops in the stats I am looking at also ranking top 6 in BS, APP, T2G, GIR, and FWYs gained. With the conditions the course will be playing long and Morikawa is one of the best long iron players on tour, which will be a big advantage for him. Hideki has not been playing the best since the re-start making 3 of 5 cuts. Putting has been his Achilles heel losing over 2.5 strokes in his last 10 events. He ranks 144th in putting, 130th scrambling, and 79th in FWYs gained. Hitting fairways will be key this week with the rough playing brutal in places. Morikawa finished strong last week and is poised for a strong finish this week.
Brooks Koepka -167 vs Tiger Woods *1 unit*
Brooks looks for his 3rd straight PGA Championship on this big boy course that will play longer than what the card says. Brooks says this course should play right into his hands and it sets up very well with his style of play. Brooks is coming off a 2nd place finish at the WGC last week gained over 10 strokes T2G but lost 2.7 putting. Brooks last 5 PGA finishes are 1st, 1st, 13th, 4th, and 5th he has gained at least 10 strokes in the 4 top 5s including 19.1 last year. Brooks has finished 2nd, 1st, 1st in the last 3 U.S. Opens, he finished 2nd at the Masters last year and 4th at The Open so he really gets up and plays his best golf for these Major events. Tiger comes in off a shaky 40th place finish at the Memorial. He has said that he will not have his regular full range of motion with the weather but will try to keep his core insulated best. DraftKings posted this line and yes, it is a lot of juice, but you don’t pay juice when you win, and this isn’t a fair matchup on paper Brooks should cover this matchup with ease.
Chez Reavie -125 vs Ryan Palmer *1 unit*
Chez was a favorite target of mine last week and he did not let me down with a 6th place finish. Chez elevates his game for these strong field events and grinds out solid results. He has finished in the top 15 in the last 2 PGA Championships and is entering in great form (6th, 22nd, 17th). Chez ranks top 10 in P4 450-500, FWYs gained, and scrambling. He also ranks top 20 in T2G and APP. Palmer has had a couple good finishes recently but has not fared well at the PGA Championship missing the cut 2 of the past 3 years. Palmer ranks 70th or higher in SG: Par 4, Scrambling, and FWYs gained. I like Chez to keep his strong play up here and to finish higher than Palmer.
Top 20 Bets:
Collin Morikawa +163
Shane Lowry +300
Chez Reavie +350
Brooks Koepka 22-1 FRL
Tony Finau 50-1 FRL
Russell Henley 90-1 FRL
Brooks Koepka 11-1 to win
Daniel Berger 30-1 to win
Collin Morikawa 35-1 to win