Last week’s recap: 2-1 Matchups +1u
Season totals: Matchups 21-11-1 +8.08u
Patrick Reed +100 vs Webb Simpson *1 unit*
Reed is off his 3 rd top 13 finish in his last 4 events and is moving full steam ahead into the playoffs. The first event is being played at one of Reed’s favorite tracks TPC Boston, where he has finished inside the top 6 in 3 of his last 4 trips. Reed has been great from tee to green and has the putter heating up gaining strokes in his last 4 events. Reed is also one of the best around the green players if he happens to miss a green. When considering Webb Simpson, the first thing I look at is the type of grass on the greens and if it is Bermuda then full speed ahead if it is Bentgrass then I look for the fade. We are on Bent this week and Webb does not have good history here, finishing outside the top 40 in his last 4 trips. I like the value with Reed here at even odds.
Tony Finau -110 vs Hideki Matsuyama *1 unit*
Finau has a lot of things going for him this week, he can hit the ball a mile and is a great long iron player. He is top 5 in the following strokes gained stats over the last 24 rounds: T2G, APP, BS, OTT, BoB gained, and birdies made. His last trip to TPC Boston resulted in a 4 th place finish in 2018. Finau has finished inside the top 5 in 2 of his last 3 events and finally played well throughout a weekend finishing 4 th at the PGA Championship. Hideki has been playing solid golf routinely finishing in the mid-20s, but the putter has held him back from competing since the restart as he has lost strokes putting in all but 1 event.
Collin Morikawa +115 vs Xander Schauffele *1 unit*
Both golfers have been really consistent and always seem to be near the top of the leaderboards. Collin is a week off his first major win and 2 nd in his last 4 events. Both golfers are great ball strikers and birdie makers. Morikawa has been better at hitting fairways and his long iron play might be the best on tour. Morikawa has been the better approach player over the last 5 events and Xander has even lost strokes approach in 4 of his last 6. Xander has played this track a couple times which could be a slight advantage, however he has not faired well here in his 2 trips with finishes of 49 th and 53 rd losing strokes T2G in both appearances. Morikawa has found something with his putter gaining strokes in 3 of his last 4 events, which was his biggest and only weakness. Morikawa getting +115 here in what I see as more of a -110 spread jumps out as some good value for a guy who has shown winning upside twice in his last 4 events.
Top 20 Bets:
Daniel Berger +125
Russell Henley +350
Cameron Davis +700
Longshots:
Rory McIlroy 22-1 FRL
Daniel Berger 40-1 FRL
HV3 90-1 FRL
Jon Rahm 15-1 To Win
Collin Morikawa 25-1 To Win
Daniel Berger 30-1 To Win
