Snyder’s PGA Bets: AT&T Pebble Beach

7-8  -1.97 units

Harold Varner III +100 vs Rickie Fowler   *1 unit*

Varner has typically done well in these lesser field events and comes in off a 13th place finish at the WMPO last week where he gained 4.8 strokes approach. Approach and around the green are a couple of key stats here and Varner is gaining over 2 strokes per round on average over his last 20 events and 1.5 ARG in his last 10 events. HV3 ranks 5th APP, 4th BS, and 5th in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds. Fowler enters in a tailspin and even missed the cut at the WMPO last week, which is one of his best tracks. I will still be looking to avoid Fowler at all costs.

Doug Ghim -106 vs Peter Malnati    *1 unit*

Ghim had a great finish to 2020 and has picked up where he left off to begin 2021. Ghim enters off a 5th place finish at The AmEx and 37th last week. Strong approach player who is pretty solid around the greens also. Malnati has 2 solid finishes and 1 missed cut in his last 3 events. He putted lights out at the Farmers and the Sony but was only break even at The AmEx and missed the cut. He is 3-6 is made cuts here at Pebble and if his putter is not red hot, I think Ghim takes him easy here.

Matthew NeSmith +110 vs James Hahn  *1 unit*

NeSmith enters off a 7th place finish last week at the WMPO where he gained over 9 strokes total and 4.5 approach. He also gained 6.6 strokes approach at the Famers the week before. NeSmith also gains just over a stroke in really windy conditions. NeSmith has played this event one time finishing in 11th place last year. Matt ranks near the top of the main stats for the week and I really like him as a dog here vs Hahn who is coming off a lights-out-putting performance last week where he gained 5.5 strokes putting.

Daniel Berger +130 vs Patrick Cantlay    *1 unit*

Berger had a rare blow-up last Friday to miss the cut on the number and I really like him to bounce back here at an event where he has finished 5th and 10th in his 2 trips. He gained over 9 strokes total in both starts. Berger’s game fits this event really well and I think this should be more of a pick-em and will gladly take the value with Berger. Cantlay has made the cut here all 6 times but has only finished inside the top 20 twice.

Top 20s

Francesco Molinari +125

Brian Harman +175

Doug Ghim +300

Longshots:

Doug Ghim FRL 33-1 (PB)

Daniel Berger 14-1 to win

Francesco Molinari 22-1 to win

Matthew NeSmith 75-1 to win