Snyder’s PGA Bets: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Matchups: 15-11 +3.23 units
Corey Conners -125 vs Talor Gooch *1 unit* -DK-
Corey Conners is off a frustrating MC at the Genesis where he missed a short putt to miss. He ended up losing over 3 strokes putting in the 2 days but did gain strokes T2G and APP which is good to see. Conners is a great ball striker and has gained strokes approach in his last 6 events and averages 2.1 strokes gained approach in his last 5 events. Conners had a solid streak of 7 straight top 40 finishes and 5 of those were T20s or better.
Matthew Fitzpatrick -129 vs Louis Oosthuizen *1 unit* -DK-
Fitzpatrick is off of back-to-back great showings at the Genesis and WGC gaining over 5 strokes T2G in both events. Fitzpatrick has looked great since winning the DP World Tour overseas back in December following that up with 3 top 20s including a 5th at the Genesis. And now he comes to a very familiar track where he has great success at finishing 9th and 2nd in his last two trips. Bermuda specialist and plays well in the high winds. Oosthuizen has been putting lights out and sinking long bombs in his last 3 events and has gained 4.5, 4.3, and 7 strokes putting in his last 3 events. He has lost strokes approach in 2 of those and if that putter cools off he will be needing some new weekend plans as he will most likely miss the cut.
Cameron Davis -124 vs Keegan Bradley *1 unit* -FD-
Cameron enters in with strong form making all 5 cuts in 2021 and is averaging 6.1 SG: T2G over his last 5 events. The approach numbers are right there and he has been great off the tee and can bomb it. Davis finished 8th at the Honda last year and I think his game should set up well here also. Bradley is quite the wildcard and I think he at best will finish in the 30-40 range here and has only finished inside the top 60 in 1 of his last 4 events. The putter has been brutal to him and Bermuda is his worst surface to putt on.
Jason Kokrak -128 vs Kevin Na *1 unit* -FD-
Kokrak’s game should fit well here and that’s probably why he has 5 top 20 finishes here in his last 7 appearances with 3 of those being T10 finishes. The recent form is there for him coming off a 9th place finish at the WGC last week and has made his last 6 cuts. His T2G numbers here are great and his long iron play ranks inside the top 15 over the last 24 rounds. Kokrak bombs it off the tee and hits lots of greens in regulation giving him lots of birdie opportunities.
Top 20s
Matthew Fitzpatrick +125
Sammy Burns +188
Kyle Stanley +500
Longshots:
Rory McIlroy 18-1 (FRL)
Sammy Burns 50-1 (FRL)
Luke List 90-1 (FRL)
Tyrrell Hatton 18-1 to win
Matthew Fitzpatrick 25-1 to win
Francesco Molinari 30-1 to win
Sammy Burns 50-1 to win
