Rams vs Bears Monday Night Football Pick 10/26/20

Bears vs Rams Betting Spread
Rams -6 vs Bears

The Chicago Bears lead by Nick Foles head to Los Angeles as a 6 point underdog. Tonight will not exactly replicate late night’s fireworks, but should play out as a good game. It’s not often you’ll see a 5-1 team getting near a TD against a not so respected public team, but that’s just the picture we have painted here tonight. Let’s start with the Bears and then talk on the Rams.

The Bears are tied for 1st in the NFC North and many may think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve in this Primetime spot. They have a few good wins, but there are some alarming items with this team. So, the big win from the Bears was of course against the Bucs a few weeks back on Thursday night. A game where the Bucs controlled most of the 1st half and then fell asleep at the wheel in the final 2 minutes giving up 2 TDs. Was then a struggle throughout for the Bucs to prevail having lost momentum. Needless to say a big win for the Bears, though this was an injury ridden Bucs team on a short week. They then win a gritty game at the Panthers getting carried by the defense and winning the TO margin handedly 3 to 1.

The biggest concern for the Bears is their lack of offense. In a league that’s so offensive heavy, this Bears offense ranks 30th in yards per play. Yes, the NY Giants average more yards per play than the Bears. Over their last three games, (All Nick Foles starts), the Bears have averaged 4.2 yards per play (only the Jets are worse and barely). Great defense sure, but this simply won’t cut it for this offense to continue to churn out wins. They don’t run the ball well and they don’t pass the ball well at all on 3rd down (29th worst in the NFL in 3rd down conversion %). This is a team that’s been so dependent on their defense to win games, and at some point this will bite them. It could very well be here.

Here’s an interesting stat for you. The Rams give up less yards per play than the Bears and no team has given up less yards per play in their last three games than the Rams. Some would say this defense is clicking. You’ll hear all about how good the Bears defense is, but the Rams need to start getting more respect. Sure, they played the Washington, the Giants, and the 49ers, but the numbers are what they are. Let’s say despite this, we still give the edge to Chicago. The big issue here is that the Rams have a much better offense than Chicago. The Rams average over a full yard more per play, over 10% better at converting 3rd downs and average nearly 75 yards more per game on offense. While also giving up 20 less yards per game than Chicago on defense.

Overall, the Bears are a team that has been rather lucky in their games especially the wins. Wins are wins in the NFL, but they’re not all created equally. The Rams coming off a bad road loss come back home where Jared Goff and this offense always plays better. I like this team to start early on the scoreboard and aim to never look back. The Bears are 24th worst scoring in the 1st half and I’d expect them to once again start slow while McVay and Goff should be able script a few good early drives to get points on the board. This is why my favorite play is Rams 1H -3.

Best Bet
Ram 1H -3


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