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Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 @ Cleveland Browns 42.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Steelers VS PASS 13 // VS RUSH 9 // PASS 20 // RUSH 23 // OVERALL 16
Browns VS PASS 23 // VS RUSH 3 // PASS 15 // RUSH 1 // OVERALL 6
The Steelers got off to a rough start to begin the season starting out 1-4 but won both games prior to their bye week. They look to keep to momentum rolling as they head to division rival Cleveland Browns, fresh off their bye week. It has been a rough start to the season for Ben Roethlisberger as age looks to be undefeated in this case. Najee Harris has been the workhorse for this team carrying the ball 23 and 24 times in their past 2 wins. Harris has also been a key target in the passing game catching 34 passes off 46 targets through 6 games. Harris is getting the full Lev Bell workload and has surpassed 20+ DK points in the last 4 games. Diontae Johnson has been Ben’s favorite receiver to target this year and has 10+ targets in 4 of 5 games played. Claypool has been more boom/bust so far this season scoring 27 points vs Denver but followed that up with 3.7 points vs Seattle. The rookie Pat Freiermuth caught all 7 targets for 58 yards vs Seattle and is viable in GPPs.
The Browns have also had their issues this season entering this game at 4-3. The key news for Cleveland is the status of starting QB Baker Mayfield. As I write this the Browns have not ruled out Baker yet, but he is unlikely to play vs the Steelers. Case Keenum will start for Baker and we have seen that Keenum is not afraid to push the ball down the field. Odell Beckham’s price tag has fell to 4,600 on DK and a switch at QB could be the cure here. Beckham has 33 targets over his last 5 games but it’s been clear that he and Baker have not been on the same page and a switch at QB could spark him. Jarvis Landry was able to return last week catching 5 of 8 targets for 37 yards. Starting running back Nick Chubb returned to practice this week as well as right tackle Jack Conklin. We need to continue to monitor this news but the return of Chubb would be big as the Browns placed Kareem Hunt on injured reserve.
If Nick Chubb is able to return this week, I think we mainly need to look at both running backs as this should be a slower low scoring division battle. For tournaments, I think a Keenum stack makes sense here as the Steelers have given up 40+ points to the WR position in all but 1 game this season. The run back would be either Najee Harris or Diontae Johnson but with the low total, I would limit the game stack to 3 or 4 total pieces.
THE DFS GEMS
Najee Harris, PITT – $7,500 on DraftKings. Harris is seeing elite usage and is benefiting from the poor arm of Roethlisberger and many check downs.
Case Keenum, CLE – $4,900 on DraftKings. Keenum is sub 5K and this Steelers defense is far from the steel curtain it once was. They have allowed 20+ points in 5 straight games.
Nick Chubb, CLE – $6,800 on DraftKings. This is a great price tag on Chubb vs a Steelers team that gave up 100+ yards to Alex Collins last week.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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