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Patriots +7 @ Bills Total 42.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Patriots VS PASS 2nd // VS RUSH 8th // PASS 24th // RUSH 25th // OVERALL 13th
Bills VS PASS 9th // VS RUSH 3rd // PASS 2nd // RUSH 11th // OVERALL 1st
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So much going on with this game. Let’s start with the Patriots. Win and they make the playoffs. Lose and they need both Miami and Pittsburg to lose to make playoffs. Buffalo is also in a must win situation. A win allows them to play Kansas City at a neutral site if they both make the AFC Championship game. A KC win and a Buffalo loss then would put KC with home field if the two teams meet. Then we have how will the Bills handle this game after what happened on Monday night. The only thing I do know is that the emotions will be riding high.
I am sure many will expect Buffalo to come out with fire. They very well might but sometimes being to fired up can have inverse affects. Then their is the other side. Perhaps their heads aren’t in the right frame to play football at this point. We can only speculate as we have no idea what expect. I do think it’s safe to say the 1st quarter of this game is huge. The Bills could come out and get a nice lead. The Patriots could battle and keep the game close in quarter one removing any emotional advantage Buffalo may have had. In the end I feel you need to play this game like a showdown in order to determine if you want any players within your pool.
Tough game matchup wise for the Patriots. The best way to attack Buffalo is through the air. They are missing several key secondary players. Unfortunately for New England this isn’t their strength. Mac Jones is going to need to step up and play like he did last year. The better he plays the more efficient the running game will be. DFS wise I am not sure the Patriots have upside. The only way Jones pays out is in a shootout. He has only surpassed 20+ points twice this season. In addition his top two targets, Jakobi Meyers and Devante Parker are questionable. Both running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are back to splitting the backfield. The best part of playing any Patriot is they should be low owned.
When Buffalo is at their best it’s due to Josh Allen. Expect Allen to try to set the tone early for this team. If Allen struggles in the air he still has his legs which can carry him fantasy wise. Don’t be surprised if Allen targets Stefon Diggs early and often. I think Diggs wants to be a big part of this game. What better for Buffalo than to have these two players come out and have a huge game. You can take some shots on Gabe Davis as perhaps Allen wants to hit the long ball. The issue with Davis is his targets are limited. Devin Singletary is sharing the backfield with James Cook limiting their upside.
THE DFS GEMS
Josh Allen, Bills-$8,400 Sentence. . . Pay attention to what others are saying pertaining to wanting to play Buffalo or not. Perhaps, Allen goes over looked. On the other end, I am sure value will open up thus making Allen fit rosters. With the limited amount of options at this position who provide upside he could end up on the higher side.
Stefon Diggs, Bills-$7,900 I see a path we’re this is a huge game for Diggs. 12-15 targets, 100+ yards and a couple touchdowns isn’t out of play. If I am playing any Bills it will be these two together.
Mac Jones, Patriots-$5,000 None of the cheap quarterbacks will be uber popular. If the Patriots are going to win this game it is due to Jones having a big game.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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