OFF THE RECORD – VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

March 16, 2022
By: Robert Record

Valspar Championship

This week is the conclusion of the Florida swing as we head down to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship. Although this field won’t be as strong as we saw last week, it is surprisingly good for this tournament. Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 that typically plays over 7300 yards. It is known for its narrow tree-lined fairways and challenging greens, but things always get interesting when players enter the infamous Snake Pit. The final three holes are dubbed the Snake Pit and are some of the most challenging on the entire course. The 16^th hole is one of the toughest par 4’s on the PGA TOUR. It has water on the right and trees on the left so if players don’t find the short grass, they’ll often make bogey or worse. Copperhead is unique because it is a par 71 that will still feature four par 5’s. This is made possible by the five par 3’s, four of which will measure over 200 yards. Elevation changes will also be a prominent feature throughout the course which is something we don’t typically see in Florida. The cut line has ranged from even to 4 over par.

Past Winners

2021 – Sam Burns (-17)

2020 – Covid

2019 – Paul Casey (-8)

2018 – Paul Casey (-10)

2017 – Adam Hadwin (-14)

2016 – Charl Schwartzel (-7)

2015 – Jordan Spieth (-10)

2014 – John Senden (-7)

2013 – Kevin Streelman (-10)

2012 – Luke Donald (-13)

Key Stats

SG:T2G
SG:APP
Fairways Gained
SG: Par 5
SG Par 4
P3: 200-225
Opps Gained
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Course History
Recent Form

Top 10 SG:T2G Past 24 Rounds:

Keegan Bradley
Justin Thomas
Russell Knox
Shane Lowry
Martin Laird
Cameron Percy
Xander Schauffele
Louis Oosthuizen
Viktor Hovland
Nick Taylor

Top 10 SG:APP Past 24 Rounds:

Viktor Hovland
Russell Knox
Shane Lowry
Cameron Percy
Justin Thomas
Patton Kizzire
Luke Donald
Keegan Bradley
Martin Kaymer
Adam Hadwin

Top 10 Fairways Gaines Past 24 Rounds:

Brian Stuard
Chez Reavie
Martin Laird
Jim Herman
Brendon Todd
Kevin Streelman
Joel Dahmen
Tyler Duncan
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Kyle Stanley

Top 10 SG:Par 5 Past 24 Rounds:

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Viktor Hovland
Luke Guthrie
Pat Perez
Cameron Percy
Dustin Johnson
Tyrrell Hatton
Sam Ryder
Seth Reeves
Martin Kaymer

Top 10 SG:Par 4 Past 24 Rounds:

Justin Thomas
Keegan Bradley
Brian Harman
Louis Oosthuizen
Mackenzie Hughes
Mito Pereira
Matthias Schwab
Shane Lowry
Viktor Hovland
Webb Simpson

Top 10 Par 3: 200-225:

Brendon Todd
Andrew Novak
Andrew Landry
Denny McCarthy
Zach Johnson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Brice Garnett
Jim Herman
Sam Burns
Mackenzie Hughes

Top 10 Course History:

Bubba Watson
Luke Donald
Matt Kuchar
Sam Burns
Louis Oosthuizen
Henrik Stenson
Abraham Ancer
Webb Simpson
Bill Haas
Viktor Hovland

Weather

After last week we deserve to have some great weather and that’s what we got. It should be interruption-free and as of now, it doesn’t appear to give any tee times an advantage.

My Model

Below are results from the model I made on Fantasy National using the key stats listed above:

My Strategy

10K+

Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland lead the pricing on Draftkings this week and both graded out extremely well in my model. It comes as no surprise with how well both played last week. I would expect both of them to come in as the more popular plays of this range. I honestly don’t hate either play and I would probably play the lower owned of the two if ownership becomes more clear. But right now I lean Hovland simply because he lost 3 strokes putting last week and still finished 9^th.

Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are projected to be the lowest owned of the 10k range and both make for great tournament plays. I had a lot of Xander last week and the results hurt. Him and Morikawa both got stuck with the tough end of the weather draw and missed the cut so maybe I shouldn’t care and just go right back. As of now I really do like the guys in the 9k range a lot more so I plan to only play one of the guys above 10k.

Dustin Johnson shot a final round 63 at the Players and is coming in with some of the highest ownership above 10k. I said it in my article last week, if DJ was such a great play at Genesis why wouldn’t you just go back? I sadly didn’t and for those that did they got paid off in a big way. His ball striking numbers looked great and he got the bad end of the weather draw and still finished 9^th last week. I don’t hate the play and I will get a sprinkle in my MME’s.

9K+

This is my favorite range for DraftKings this week. I think the winner of the tournament comes from this range and that’s even after the withdrawal of Paul Casey.

Louis Oosthuizen has been someone who has typically played well at this tournament and it shouldn’t come as a surprise because this course does suit his game. He could possibly pick up his first win on US soil this week and he shouldn’t come in that high owned. The only concerning thing with Louis has been his irons, he’s lost over 6 strokes in his last 2 events. He also needs to find the flat stick like he had during his dominant run last year.

Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry and Sam Burns are some of my favorite plays in this range and it wouldn’t shock me if the winner came from one of those three. Tyrell Hatton has been mostly all putting and I usually don’t like to play those type of guys but he’s someone who should play extremely well on this type of course. It doesn’t hurt that he’s coming in off a 13^th finish at the Players. I think Hatton may be one of the lowest owned guys in this range and I love him this week. Shane Lowry also finished 13^th last week and he gained strokes across the board which is encouraging to see. He’s also coming in with great form. Sam Burns has elite course history and is coming in with great form. He’s one of the best Bermuda putters in the world and he has the upside to win just like he did last year. I love his upside and price but he will be one of the more popular plays in this range with the Casey withdraw. I can see everyone rolling their ownership directly to Burns.

Brooks Koepka was a big part of my lineups last week and he missed the cut. He was also on the bad end of the weather draw so I won’t put too much emphasis on what he did last week. I may look to Brooks in the outright markets instead of playing him on Draftkings. I just like to play Brooks in majors or bigger tournaments.

Abraham Ancer is projecting to be one of the more popular plays in this range. I definitely understand the ownership because he does have elite course history. He is coming in off a 33^rd place finish at the Players but that’s with a good end of the weather draw. I just don’t think he’s as good of a play as the others around him. So I love the fade. He hasn’t shown any upside recently.

Jason Kokrak has elite course history with three top 15’s in his past three tournaments. He is coming in with decent recent form and he made the cut last week on the bad end of the weather draw. He has also gained with his approach in four straight events. He does have around the same ownership Ancer but I just think Kokrak has higher upside. He actually has the upside to win the tournament.

Matthew Fitzpatrick is my pick to win this week so he will be a huge part of my lineups. I understand he let everyone down last week with a missed cut but he had the worst of the weather draw. I hope last week lowers his ownership to be honest. He grades out extremely well on my model and I expect to be extremely overweight to the field.

8k+

Keegan Bradley expects to be one of the more popular plays of this range and its warranted with a solo 5^th at the Players. He had one of his typical Keegan weeks where he had an elite ball striking performance but lost with the flat stick. He finished 2^nd here last year. He is probably the best cash game play on the entire slate. As of now I will try to get over the field.

Russell Knox had an amazing week at the Players with a 6^th place finish. He also has great course history with three top 25’s in his last three appearances. He’s gaining strokes with his approach in five straight events. Last week was the only event out of those where he gained strokes putting. If he has another outlier putting week he could be in contention again come Sunday. He expects to be one of the more popular plays this week. I also love him for cash games.

Alex Noren will be one of my favorite plays of this range. The price does come in with some sticker shock don’t get me wrong, but I just love his form and fit for this course. Noren is gaining strokes in six straight events with his irons. His only appearance at Valspar was last year and he had a top 21. Last week he lost strokes putting and still finished in the top 25. I love him this week because I don’t think many will play him because of his price.

Gary Woodland will be someone I get exposure to just because I think he’s the most talented player in this range when all things are clicking. I won’t look into last week’s results that much because of the weather draw. He doesn’t have the best course history here which is concerning so maybe he won’t be a main or 3 max type play. I love his price because everyone will play Bradley so he makes for a great tournament pivot.

Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Harold Varner, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner and Cameron Tringale will all be fades for me this week. I just can’t play everyone.

7k+

The start of this range with Adam Hadwin and Christiaan Bezuidenhout will be a great way I find some value plays with upside. I love them both for their price and fit for the course. Hadwin had a 9^th place finish last week at the Players and he won this tournament back in 2017. He has the form at the right time to come back to a place where he’s had past success. I love him this week. Bez didn’t play at the Players last week. He also fits the same mold of player as Hadwin with elite putting. He doesn’t have any course history but he’s riding some decent form. I also like him this week.

Aaron Wise is someone I will get some exposure to this week. I love the way his irons have looked the past two events he’s played. He made the cut last week and finished 50^th, that’s after losing five strokes putting. He lost over four strokes putting the week before and finished 17^th. If this guy ever learns how to putt, he may win another golf tournament.

Patton Kizzire is going to be a huge part of my week and its already worrying on a Tuesday night. This is just one of those plug your nose and play situations. He had a bad part of the weather draw and finished 22^nd at the Players, although most of that was putting. He’s gained strokes with his approach in four straight events. When I look at the guys priced around him, I just feel he is by far the most talented and has the highest upside.

6k+

This range is ugly this week. I will be making a rule to limit to where I get max one of these guys down here. Pat Perez is someone coming in with decent form and course history for someone in this range. He had a 33^rd last week at the Players and a 29^th at the Valspar in 2021. I don’t hate the play and I’ll get a sprinkle in my MME. Vaughn Taylor is grading out well in my model so I will also play him in my MME builds. He has elite course history with a 6^th and 18^th. Not a bad price to take a shot in tournaments.

My Core

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Patton Kizzire

Look, I’m upset with myself last week for missing out on narrative street with Cameron Smith not seeing his family for over 2 years due to Covid. I’m not missing out on this week’s narrative, Matthew Fitzpatrick’s younger brother Alex will be in the field this week. No one can tell me that the entire family isn’t in Palm Harbor. Alex is one of the best amateur players in the entire world. He won an amateur tournament just to get here. Maybe this is the extra influence Matthew needs to finally push through and get his first PGA tour win. I love it and hope last weeks missed cut just allowed him more of an opportunity to focus on this week. Bez is just my guy and someone I will continue to play because I love his talent. He had the week off last week so I hope he comes in fresh without the hassle of the extended Players tournament. Kizzire is just a value play that I love with upside and he will be a huge part of my week.

My Outrights

Brooks 28/1

Fitz 33/1

Noren 55/1

Woodland 70/1

Molinari 100/1

Kizzire 125/1