NFL Week 9, Packers AT Lions

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Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ Detroit Lions 49.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Packers VS PASS 9 // VS RUSH 31 // PASS 12 // RUSH 9 // OVERALL 13

Lions VS PASS 32 // VS RUSH 30 // PASS 16 // RUSH 7 // OVERALL 23

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

Green Bay has now lost its last 4 games and is desperate for a win. Luckily, they head to Detroit to face the 1-6 Lions at Ford Field. This Detroit defense has been a printer all season for opposing offenses. The Lions are giving up an average of 32 points per game. Aaron Rodgers passed for 203 yards vs Buffalo last week and is only averaging 225 yards a game this season. If this Packers team can’t get the offense going this week vs the Lions they might as well just pack up shop. Romeo Doubs caught 4 of 7 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. Doubs has 7+ targets in 4 of the last 6 games. Allen Lazard is questionable to play this week and is something we need to monitor leading up to Sunday. The tight end position is weak this week and Tonyan is under 4K and caught 5 of 6 passes for 35 yards last week. Tonyan has caught at least 3 passes in the last 4 games. Aaron Jones carried the ball for a season-high 20 times last week, rushing for 143 yards. Jones has been very active in the passing game as well and I look to that to continue.     

Detroit raced out to a 27-17 lead in the first half but was held scoreless in the second half. Jamaal Williams out carried Swift 2-1 in Swift’s first game back. Williams rushed for 53 yards and two touchdowns. Swift wasn’t used much in the rushing game but was active in the passing game catching all 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown. I look for Swift’s snap count to rise this week. The Packers have been very beatable on the ground this week and Swift has the ability to crush at lower ownership. TJ Hockenson was traded away leaving Brock Wright as the next man up. Wright caught 4 passes for 57 yards vs the Cowboys 2 weeks ago and had 1 catch last week. The 2.5K salary is very inviting especially since the tight-end position is very weak. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 7 passes for 69 yards last week. With his price tag dropping down to 6.6K I expect he will be a very popular option this week.

The Packers opened as 5-point favorites but the line has since dropped down to 3.5. We have a couple of bad defenses in a dome, which should lead to lots of fantasy goodness. This game is tied with the Arizona/Seattle game for the highest total and should be a popular game to stack up. I look for the Packers offense to finally wake up and score some points this week but I do think Detroit keeps this one close giving it the back-and-forth we want for fantasy.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Aaron Rodgers, GB – $5,900 on DraftKings. This might be the first time Rodgers price has dropped under 6K and all the projections/models will be rating him high vs the defense.

Aaron Jones, GB – $7,400 on DraftKings. Jones is the best player on this offense and I look for Green Bay to utilize him both in the rushing game and passing games. The Packers need to get the ball in his hand at least 20 times this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET – $6,600 on DraftKings. This is a complete miss price here of St. Brown and he should be a very popular option but is chalk that I am willing to eat. He will rate out as one of the best plays on the slate.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS 

Article produced by SNYDER  

 

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