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New England Patriots -1.5 @ New York Jets 40.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Patriots VS PASS 8 // VS RUSH 28 // PASS 26 // RUSH 10 // OVERALL 16
Jets VS PASS 15 // VS RUSH 12 // PASS 25 // RUSH 13 // OVERALL 15
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2022 numbers.
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Will it be Mac Jones (5.3K) or Bailey Zappe (5.3K) SZN this weekend? Reports mid-week say that Jones is scheduled to start against the Jets but this is a situation I’ll avoid in DFS altogether. By fading the QBs, that will keep me away from the pass catchers in Jakobi Meyers (5.6K), Devante Parker (4.4K), Nelson Agholor (3.8K), Tyquan Thorton (3.8K), Hunter Henry (3.3K), and Jonnu Smith (3.1K). If playing anyone from the NE side, it would definitely be from the running attack of Rahmondre Stevenson (6.4K) and Damien Harris (5.8K). My preference would definitely be Stevenson of the 2 if I had a choice.
On the Jets side, Breece Hall (6.2K) unfortunately went to the IR so they traded for James Robinson (5.7K) to help in the backfield with Michael Carter (5.9K). The current reports are that they’ll work to share the load so I’m not sure how much interest I’ll have in this backfield. If choosing one back though, I’d lean into Carter and the fact that he is already accustomed to the offense. Zach Wilson (5.1K) has not flashed upside in a few weeks so I would expect more of the same here against a stout NE defense. This will bring me off of the pass catchers on the NYJ side such as Elijah Moore (4.7K), Corey Davis (4.5K), Garrett Wilson (4.2K), Tyler Conklin (3.2K) and C.J. Uzomah (2.5K).
Overall, this game lacks any type of fantasy appeal and I’ll likely be treating it that way. I’ll hope for a slow, grind it out game here, and take my plays elsewhere.
THE DFS GEMS
Rahmondre Stevenson, NE – $6,400 on DraftKings. Even with Damien Harris’ return, Stevenson looked every bit like a lead back and would be my favorite play from this game. Has had 20+ FPT performances in 4 of his last 5 weeks.
Michael Carter, NYJ – $5,900 on DraftKings. If playing Carter, I’d lean into the hopes that Robinson does not have a full grasp on the playbook and will be working in a limited capacity. This would lead to an increased role for Carter.
Tyquan Thornton, NE – $3,800 on DraftKings. The Patriots seem to like this guy a lot and he is on the field for majority of the snaps as a result. This is a very cheap tag for a guy with big play upside against a suspect NYJ defense.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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