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Indianapolis Colts +5 @ New England Patriots 40.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Colts VS PASS 16 // VS RUSH 8 // PASS 30 // RUSH 32 // OVERALL 31
Patriots VS PASS 8 // VS RUSH 28 // PASS 26 // RUSH 10 // OVERALL 16
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2022 numbers.
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This game is definitely one that I would prefer not to write up as it features 2 really anemic teams on the offensive side of the ball which will likely lead to an unpleasant viewing experience. As always though, we’ll look to find some gems that you all can consider for your NFL main slate this weekend!
On the IND side, their outlook is a lot worse with Sam Ehlinger (5K) behind center. They look to establish the run but Jonathan Taylor (7.7K) looks banged up once again and they just traded away Nyheim Hines, leaving Deon Jackson (5.2K) in the backfield. Unless something really positive news-wise comes out regarding JT’s health, I’ll likely stay away from the IND running game as well as the IND passing game which features Michael Pittman (6.8K), Alec Pierce (4.4K), Parris Campbell (4.2K) and the tight end roulette of Jelani Woods (2.5K), Mo Alie-Cox (2.8K), and Kylen Granson (2.7K).
The NE side is a bit more attractive from a DFS perspective. I’ll avoid the QB play of mediocre Mac Jones (5.1K) and take my talents to the alpha of the run game, Rhamondre Stevenson (6.2K) as well as the alpha of the passing attack which is Jakobi Meyers (5.4K). Tyquan Thornton (3.3K) is also an acceptable punt as Devante Parker should be out for this game. The rest of the NE pieces such as Hunter Henry (3K), Jonnu Smith (2.9K), Kendrick Bourne (3.4K), Nelson Agholor (3.2K) and Damien Harris (5.6K) leave a lot to be desired so I’ll take a pass on them. I expect an ugly one here so I’ll treat it that way for DFS purposes and being selective with the pieces that I have from this game.
THE DFS GEMS
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE – $6,200 on DraftKings. 20+ FPT performances in 5 of his last 6 games and his price continues to hover near the same tag.
Jakobi Meyers NE – $5,400 on DraftKings. Clearly Jones’ favorite passing target as indicated by his 13 target, 9 reception, 60 yard, 1 touchdown performance last week.
Patriots DST, NE – $4,100 on DraftKings. Not a believer in Ehlinger, Pats D could tee of here on the young buck.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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