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Tampa Bay -8.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 43.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Bucs VS PASS 1 // VS RUSH 14 // PASS 8 // RUSH 29 // OVERALL 4
Steelers VS PASS 18 // VS RUSH 17 // PASS 24 // RUSH 26 // OVERALL 27
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Tampa built a sizeable lead of 21 points heading into the 4th quarter, but let their foot off the pedal. As a result, Atlanta ripped off 15 points to get within 6 of the lead but was unable to get one last stop. Uncle Lenny led the team in production last week carrying the ball 14 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. Fournette also added 10 catches in the passing game for 83 yards and a touchdown. Brady had 50+ passing attempts for the second straight game completing 35 of 52 passes for 351 yards but only 1 passing touchdown. Mike Evans caught 4 of 8 targets for 81 yards and Chris Godwin caught all 6 targets for 61 yards. Chris Godwin only played on 41 of 79 snaps down 12 snaps from the game vs KC. I wouldn’t put much into this as Tampa was in full control of this game and Godwin wasn’t needed. Cade Otton took over as the team’s starting tight end vs Atlanta and caught 6 of 7 targets for 43 yards.
There is not much to like about this Pittsburgh Steelers team this year. They got boat raced by Josh Allen and the Bills last week giving up 31 points in the first half. Kenny Pickett attempted 52 passes completing 34 of them for 327 yards and 1 interception. Rookie George Pickens led the team in catches (6) and yards (83). Pickens is one of the most talented rookies in this year’s class and has a huge upside. There is serious concern about Najee Harris as Jaylen Warren’s snap count has risen in the last 3 weeks. Warren played on 38 of 75 snaps last week to Harris 37. Jaylen was more productive than Najee rushing 5 times for 24 yards vs 11 carries for 20 yards of Harris. Warren also topped Harris in the passing game catching 4 of 5 targets for 39 yards to Harris 3 catches for 16 yards. Diontae Johnson caught 5 of 13 targets for 60 yards and Chase Claypool caught 5 of 9 targets for 50 yards.
This game does not present much fantasy goodness for us and I would rather target some higher-upside games. I expect Tampa to roll over Pittsburgh here as Brady and Co. look to get on a run after losing 2 of their last 3 games. Pittsburgh has surrendered 38, 24, and 29 points in their last 3 games, and this defense has struggled without TJ Watt. I would look to stack up Tampa in this game with Brady, Godwin, Evans, and Fournette.
THE DFS GEMS
Leonard Fournette, TB – $7,400 on DraftKings. This should be a great game script for Uncle Lenny here as a big favorite vs a struggling defense. Fournette has 30 targets through 5 games this season and will see the majority of the carries.
Chris Godwin, TB – $6,100 on DraftKings. We have a great price tag on Godwin here and I could see him smashing in the same spot Gabe Davis did last week.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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