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San Francisco 49ers -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons 44.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
49ers VS PASS 9 // VS RUSH 11 // PASS 29 // RUSH 13 // OVERALL 17
Falcons VS PASS 17 // VS RUSH 26 // PASS 18 // RUSH 2 // OVERALL 11
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2022 numbers.
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The Falcons have been a fantasy friendly team to target for most of this year but anytime a team is going against San Francisco, it makes things a bit tougher to swallow. First things first, the QBs in this game are very cheap with Jimmy Garoppolo priced at (5.5K) and Marcus Mariota priced at (5.3K).
On the SF side, it is very clear that Deebo Samuel (7.6K) has the highest ceiling in the game. Brandon Aiyuk (5.4K) and Jauan Jennings (3.6K) round out the receiving corps which feel like non upside type of plays. It also still remains to be seen if George Kittle (5.1K) will continue to be a zero in the passing game or be relegated to blocking. I’ll probably continue to get overweight in MME formats in hopes that I get that breakout game sooner rather than later. Jeff Wilson was priced up to (6.2K) this week, but there is no denying the role he has in this run game with Elijah Mitchell (4K) on the IR.
On the opposite side for ATL, Kyle Pitts (4.2K) practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday so it does feel like he will be available come Sunday. However, his production on the field has been laughable to this point. Like Kittle though, I will take my shots and bank on talent at the cheap tag. Drake London (5.4K) and Olamide Zaccheaus (4K) would be my only other considerations from the ATL pass game, with London being my favorite option from the ATL side. Due to the injury to Cordarrelle Patterson (5.8K), Tyler Allgeier (5.1K) has taken the reigns for about 60% of the snaps while Caleb Huntley (4.9K) and Avery Williams (4.7K) divy up the rest of the snaps. I will likely have minimal exposure to this game from a DFS perspective apart from a one-off here or there.
THE DFS GEMS
Deebo Samuel, SF – $7,600 on DraftKings. Deebo has slate breaking upside every slate that he is on and this weekend will be no different against a very suspect ATL defense.
Jeff Wilson Jr, SF – $6,200 on DraftKings. As he was chalk last week at the cheap tag, his ownership will surely be reduced this week due to the price jump, making him a great tournament option.
Drake London, ATL – $5,400 on DraftKings. Has had back to back bad weeks but I am a believer in London’s talent and will take stabs at this price for any WR who I believe is the alpha of their team.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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