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Miami Dolphins -3 @ New York Jets 44.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Dolphins VS PASS 31 // VS RUSH 10 // PASS 4 // RUSH 12 // OVERALL 14
Jets VS PASS 32 // VS RUSH 12 // PASS 23 // RUSH 17 // OVERALL 29
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2022 numbers.
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On the surface, this looks like an absolute disgusting game from a viewership perspective as it’s headlined by Teddy Bridgewater (5.4K) and Zach Wilson (5.3K). However, the Jets are one of the worst teams defensively and the pieces from this game are cheap, making this a very targetable DFS environment despite the lack of star power at the QB position.
The target tree for Teddy Bridgewater is quite simple, Tyreke Hill (8K) and Jaylen Waddle (6.7K). Bridgewater did look like he had nice rapport with Trent Sherfield (3.3K) when he checked in, however, Cedrick Wilson (3.1K) practiced in full on Wednesday and is looking to make his return this week muddying the WR3 position for MIA even further. In the backfield, Raheem Mostert (5K) is still too cheap for his role as he has been out snapping Chase Edmonds (5.2K) more and more every week. Mike Gesicki (3.5K) feels like a touchdown or bust candidate and will feel that way each week in this Mike McDaniel offense.
On the Jets side, it is finally Breece Hall (5.4K) SZN as he has out snapped Michael Carter (4.9K) last week and has seemingly become the lead back for New York. The wide receiver group for the Jets is somewhat of a roulette game and Draft Kings priced them accordingly with Garrett Wilson at 5.2K, Corey Davis at 5.1K, and Elijah Moore at 5K. Davis was by far the best performer last week when Wilson started with 7 targets for 5 catches and 74 yards and a touchdown. Wilson had 6 targets for 2 catches and 41 yards while Moore had 4 targets for 3 catches and 53 yards. Tyler Conklin (3.7K) and C.J. Uzomah (2.6K) round out the tight end group with Conklin receiving 5 targets last week to Uzomah’s 0. I’ll likely focus moreso on the Miami pieces here and run it back with Breece Hall so I don’t have to guess on the passing game of NYJ.
THE DFS GEMS
Tyreke Hill, MIA – $8,000 on DraftKings. When Teddy was in the game last week, Hill caught 6 passes for 109 yards so the chemistry is clearly there. Waddle also looks to be bothered by a groin injury which is keeping him out of practice making TyFREAK an elite option.
Breece Hall, NYJ – $5,400 on DraftKings. Had 17 rushing attemps last week and 6 targets in the passing game. Back to back 15+ FPT performances and is now the clear lead back for the Jets.
Raheem Mostert, MIA – $5,000 on DraftKings. The opportunities Mostert is getting will eventually convert into a big game sooner rather than later. No better time than against a horrid Jets defense.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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