NFL WEEK 4, COMMANDERS AT COWBOYS

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Washington Commanders +3.5 @ Dallas Cowboys 41.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Commanders VS PASS 31 // VS RUSH 19 // PASS 30 // RUSH 18 // OVERALL 22

Cowboys VS PASS 2 // VS RUSH 16 // PASS 6 // RUSH 13 // OVERALL 1

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

This matchup is a tale of two teams riding separate waves of momentum as the Cowboys are 2-0 in the Cooper Rush era while the Commanders are coming off of a loss to the Eagles having only put up 8 points at home after putting up 28 and 27 points in their first two games. Vegas tends to think the Cooper Rush era will improve to 3-0 and I somewhat agree.

Carson Wentz (6K) put up over 40 pass attempts last week but only completed 25 of those passes and struggled mightily against a swarming Philadelphia defense. I consider Dallas one of the best defenses in the league so the struggles could certainly continue here. If anything, I would focus moreso on the passing game and fade the members of the run game in Antonio Gibson (6K) and J.D. McKissic (5.1K). Curtis Samuel (5.7K) definitely looks to be Wentz’ favorite target thus far as he’s had 10,9, and 11 targets in his first three games. Terry McLaurin (6.5K) finally posted a 100 yard game last week with 9 targets total (8 and 4 targets the week previous). Jahan Dotson (4.3K) had 8 targets last week but only converted on 2 of those for 10 yards.

On the Dallas side, Cooper Rush (5.3K) is acting as a mere game manager but has some Dallas fans wanting him to remain the starter even when Dak comes back (crazy, I know). He is playing well but does not look to be posting the upside with performances of only 13.6 and 12.4 FPTs. My focus would be more on the skill players like CeeDee Lamb (6.7K) who has garnered 10+ targets in each game thus far and is coming off of a 22.7 FPT performance with Cooper Rush at the helm. Noah Brown (4.9K) also seems to have good chemistry with Rush having had targets of 7 and 5 since Rush took over and posting 10.4 and 20.1 FPTs in each of those games. Ezekiel Elliott (6.1K) and Tony Pollard (6K) are the 2 headed snake which I probably want to avoid when it comes to fantasy purposes as I feel like it is somewhat flipping a coin. I’ll likely have minimal exposure here DFS wise aside from a skill player or two.

 

THE DFS GEMS

CeeDeee Lamb, DAL– $6,700 on DraftKings. Dallas’ clear alpha WR1 who has gotten 10+ targets every week of the season thus far. If he didn’t drop that pass last week, he would’ve had an even bigger week than he did.

Terry McLaurin WAS – $6,500 on DraftKings. Scary Terry is currently projecting for little to no ownership and if last week was an indication of how the chemistry between him and Wentz is building, then we may be in for a big game at low ownership as he finally posted a 100+ yard receiving game last week. Diggs in coverage on the opposite side is always prone to giving up the big one as well.

Curtis Samuel, WAS – $5,700 on DraftKings. It is clear that Wentz loves this guy as a target as he’s had 11, 9, and 10 targets through 3 weeks of the season.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

Article produced by GLOCKOMA

 

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