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Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 @ Houston Texans 44.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Chargers VS PASS 18 // VS RUSH 11 // PASS 10 // RUSH 31 // OVERALL 15
Texans VS PASS 9 // VS RUSH 30 // PASS 29 // RUSH 28 // OVERALL 25
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with.
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Justin Herbert played to the surprise of many last week coming off the ribs injury. He was definitely not 100% and it showed on many throws. Herbert completed 25 of 45 passes, which was another surprise to see him have that many attempts. Herbert threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and totaled 297 yards. Austin Ekeler only carried the ball 4 times for 5 yards but was active in the passing game, catching 8 passes for 48 yards. Keenan Allen is trending towards returning this week. I expect Allen to be a key target for Herbert who will be looking to spend as minimal amount of time in the pocket as possible. Mike Williams is best suited for GPPs this week as he only caught 1 pass for 15 yards last week, it was a touchdown at least. Williams has 2 games under 10 points and 1 game over 25 points making him the boom/bust tournament option. Josh Palmer is now priced too high for his role now that Allen is back. Gerald Everett has received 20 targets through the first 3 weeks of the season. He has scored over 13 points in 2 of the games and is in play this week at a fair price of 4K.
Davis Mills and the Houston Texans return home after two road games. The upside we saw at times from Mills last season has yet to be duplicated. Mills is yet to score over 17 DK points and has scored under 12 points in his last 2 games. Dameon Pierce’s usage has increased each week carrying the ball 11, 15, and 20 times last week. Pierce rushed for 80 yards and one touchdown last week, adding in 2 catches for 21 yards. Brandin Cooks has received 29 targets through 3 games but has only turned those into 13 catches for 158 yards and is yet to find the endzone. The Chargers have a secondary and I will be off Cooks this week at $5,800. Nico Collins has the value tag of $4,000 and has caught 2 or more passes in each game, but is yet to reach 10 DK points in a game. I don’t mind punting with the Texans defense here at only $2,400. Herbert is far from 100% and Houston has sacked the opposing quarterback 11 times and totaled 4 interceptions.
I will be taking the wait-and-see approach with Herbert still not fully healthy. I think he makes for a great pivot for tournaments as many will target Jackson, Allen, or Hurts this week if spending up. The addition of Keenan Allen should help spark this offense after only scoring 10 points last week vs the Jaguars. Mike Williams is always in play for GPPs as he possesses the big play threat but can easily pop up with another dud. I like playing Pierce as a one-off this week as the Chargers have struggled against opposing running backs this season and just lost Bosa last week.
THE DFS GEMS
Keenan Allen, LAC – $6,500 on DraftKings. Allen has a fair price tag as the volume wideout that Herbert should be looking to target often on the quick passes.
Austin Ekeler, LAC – $7,700 on DraftKings. Ekeler is off to a very slow start rushing the football but has been active in the passing game. I expect him to come in around 10% or lower making him a great upside GPP target.
Dameon Pierce, HOU – $5,600 on DraftKings. Pierce finally took the lead role last week carrying the ball 20 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers will be without star Joey Bosa this week and the Chargers have given up 34 and 26 points to the RB position the past two games.
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