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Detroit Lions +6 @ Minnesota Vikings 53.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Lions VS PASS 27 // VS RUSH 31 // PASS 28 // RUSH 26 // OVERALL 29

Vikings VS PASS 13 // VS RUSH 25 // PASS 12 // RUSH 27 // OVERALL 16

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

This game features the highest total of the week and with that, will come with a lot of ownership. However, there is no denying that this game can produce fantasy fireworks. The Minnesota Vikings will look to bounce back at home after dropping a disappointing 7 points on the road against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The Lions on the other hand are coming off a win against the Commanders where they posted 36 points but allowed 27 points in that game, and 38 points previous in a loss to the Eagles.

For Detroit, it is clear who is the WR1 in Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.2K) as he’s gotten 12 targets in both weeks so far. The next closest receiver last week was T.J Hockenson (4.2K) at 7 targets but he only converted 3 of those into 26 yards. After Hockenson, it was D’Andre Swift (7.2K) with 5 targets, DJ Chark (5.1K) with 4, and Josh Reynolds (4.5K) with 3. Minnesota got gashed on the ground giving up 163 rushing yards last week so I would expect a bounce back for Swift here. It does concern me about the possibility of Jamaal Williams (5.4K) vulturing at the goal line though as always.

Like Detroit, it is also clear who is the WR1 for the Vikings and that is Justin Jefferson (9.3K) as he too received 12 targets last week. Big Irv Smith made his triumphant return last week as well and was the next closest in targets with 8 (3.1K) then followed by Adam Thielen (5.9K) with 7, Dalvin Cook (7.9K) with 6, and Alexander Mattison (5.7K) with 5. Minnesota’s coach Kevin O’Connell was quoted saying that he thinks he needs to do a better job of getting Cook in rhythm so there is a possibility they focus on establishing the run more this game. I will definitely have a ton of exposure to this game from a DFS perspective. If you do not plan on playing Justin Jefferson, I would consider leveraging him by playing Dalvin Cook.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Dalvin Cook, MIN– $7,900 on DraftKings. I touched on it above but if you plan on fading Jefferson, Cook can be used at direct leverage to vulture touchdown. Mid tier build won out last week and I could see the same happening this week with Cook being one of those pieces (similar to Chubb last week)

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET – $7,200 on DraftKings. Love this guy and all the quotes that are coming out about him knowing all the WRs that were picked ahead of him. There is no one from MIN that was picked before him, but he is the clear alpha WR of this DET team and I would suspect his production to continue.

Irv Smith, MIN – $3,100 on DraftKings. Way too cheap for a guy who was 2nd in targets with 8 behind Justin Jefferson.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

Article produced by GLOCKOMA

 

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