NFL WEEK 3, CHIEFS AT COLTS

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -5.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 50.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

CHIEFS VS PASS 22 // VS RUSH 6 // PASS 3 // RUSH 21 // OVERALL 4

COLTS VS PASS 29 // VS RUSH 2 // PASS 31 // RUSH 24 // OVERALL 31

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to keep the momentum going after beating the Chargers 27-24 last Thursday night in KC. The Vegas total has dropped a point and a half since opening here, but I still bet the Chiefs TTO 27.5 in this spot. This Indy pass defense has been atrocious as they have the 29th ranked pass d DVOA so far this season. I would expect Pat to do whatever he wants against this Defense this week and would expect him to be one of the highest scoring QBs this week.

Travis Kelce is essentially the WR1 in this offense as he has commanded a 21% team target share this season and should be a stalwart in your Mahomes stacks.

MVS and Juju Smith-Schuster lead the WR group in snaps played and target share. They are both commanding a 14% target share. I prefer the cheaper of the 2 this week in MVS at only 4700. There is a full blown time share in the backfield with McKinnon getting 42% of the snaps, Edwards-Helaire getting 40% and Pacheco getting 16%. Like the WR above, if going to these backs, I prefer the cheaper McKinnon here at only 4500. Pacheco isn’t playable on a full slate.

This team has been dreadful to start the season. “MattyIce” has not lived up to his nickname and the guy they traded away is the QB2 in Fantasy so far this season. I have no interest in Matt Ryan in this spot even at 5200. In order to keep this game close, The Colts are going to have to give JT more than the 10 touches he got last week. His price went down 900 and he makes for an interesting add to your KC stacks as the bring back.

Indy also needs to get Michael Pittman back after he missed last week with an injury. I believe he is trending in the right direction to play. He had 12 targets in week 1 and played almost every offensive snap. 6900 is a tough price to pay for him here though, but he wont be owned at all. In Pittman’s absence last week, Ashton Dulin had 7 targets for 79 yards and 1 rush attempt. Even with Pittman back, I would expect him to still get targets here. At 3900, I like him a ton this week as a cheap option.

Kylen Granson and Mo Allie Cox continue to split the Snaps at TE and both are pure GPP dart plays and are cheap on DK.

I like this game a lot. The spread is only 5.5 so Vegas thinks it will stay relatively close. Anytime Mahomes and Kelce are on the slate, I will have interest. I don’t hate a Mahomes/Kelce stack with a double bring back of JT and maybe a Dulin.

 

THE DFS GEMS 

PAT MAHOMES, KC – $7,900 on DraftKings. 3+ TD upside every week. One of the highest ceilings on the slate.

TRAVIS KELCE, KC – 7,900 on DraftKings. 16 targets in the first 2 week. Multi TD upside in any matchup.

JONATHAN TAYLOR, IND  – $9,000 on DraftKings. 900 price decrease from last week. If they keep it close, it HAS to be because of JT.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS 

Article produced by garyuscg14

 

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