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Patriots -1 @ Steelers Total 41
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Patriots VS PASS 3 // VS RUSH 10 // PASS 10 // RUSH 7 // OVERALL 4
Steelers VS PASS 8 // VS RUSH 27 // PASS 24 // RUSH 24 // OVERALL 23
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with.
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Pittsburgh opened with a tough and unexpected road win against the Bengals. They were carried by a strong defense that forced turnovers. Can they repeat that type of performance without TJ Watt will be the question. New England didn’t look that great at all against the Dolphins. The offense was stagnant and was no help to their defense. Huge game for both teams as the Steelers look to go 2-0 while the Patriots don’t want to start 0-2.
The Patriots offense didn’t look great against the Dolphins. Yes, Mac Jones was fairly efficient but overall the Patriots hit you with a balanced offense. Jones doesn’t have great deep threats making him tough to play. A 300+ yard game is rough to come by when you continually target the short patterns. It’s impossible to target one of his wideouts as he spreads the ball around. He targeted 9 different players with 6 being the most for one. The backfield is no different. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson appear to be in a time share. Both can be productive but with the limited amount of opportunities the upside is hard to see. Honestly, this is a team I will likely stay away from until injuries hit.
The theme continues at quarterback. Can you trust Mitchell Trubisky? He wasn’t efficient but he did make plenty of attempts. I expect the Patriots to try to shut down Najee Harris and make Trubisky beat them. If I am targeting anyone from this game it’s the Steelers wideouts. Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth earned the majority of targets from Mitchell with 12 and 10 respectively. Chase Claypool was left out with 6 while rookie George Pickens collected only 3. A more even distribution should be expected against the Pats. In addition Najee should earn more than 2 targets.
I expect the Patriots defense to step up and contain Trubisky making this a tough game for the Steelers. Due to both teams styles I will have little to no interest in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 17-13 final.
THE DFS GEMS
Chase Claypool, Steelers-$4,700 A deep GPP field flyer. People will be box score watching and he shouldn’t be highly owned at all. I see Trubisky airing the ball out often and he could be the recipient who finds the end zone a few times.
New England Patriots-$2,900 I don’t mind taking shots with this defense. Trubisky is turnover prone. The price is more than fair.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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