NFL Week 12, Bengals AT Titans

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Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans 42.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Bengals VS PASS 10 // VS RUSH 16 // PASS 10 // RUSH 9 // OVERALL 10

Titans VS PASS 13 // VS RUSH 1 // PASS 12 // RUSH 14 // OVERALL 12

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

Cinci travels to Tennessee off a 7-point road win vs divisional foe Pittsburgh. Joey B passed for 355 yards and 4 touchdowns but did turn it over twice. The big news to watch leading up to this game is the status of Joe Mixon who remains in concussion protocol as I am writing this. Samaje Perine filled in for Mixon and carried the ball 11 times for 30 yards. Perine exploded in the passing game catching 3 touchdowns on 4 catches for 52 yards. Tee Higgins led the team in targets, catches, and yards going for 9 catches for 148 yards. Tyler Boyd had 7 targets but was only able to catch 2 of 42 yards. Trenton Irwin had a career-best day catching 4 passes for 42 yards and 1 touchdown.  

Tennessee comes off at Green Bay 27-17 and has won 7 of their last 8 games. The later we get into the season Derrick Henry has historically got better. In 43 games during November and December Henry has rushed for 3,731 yards and 41 touchdowns. Henry has caught 2+ passes in 6 of his last 8 games. Rookie Treylon Burks broke out last week catching 7 or 8 targets for 111 yards. Robert Woods caught 6 of 7 targets for 69 yards last week but I wouldn’t put too much into that and would look to fade him this week. Austin Hooper caught all 4 targets for 36 yards and scored twice. Ryan Tannehilll was very effective completing 81% of his passes for 333 yards.

The Bengals have surrendered an average of 25 points over their last 5 games and have been beatable on the ground. Najee Harris had 90 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, Nick Chubb had 101 yards and two touchdowns, and Kamara and Ingram both avg over 5 yards per carry vs them. I think this is a smash spot for the big dog King Henry who is averaging just over 100 yards per game this year. This is also a nut spot for Joey B and the Bengals passing attack as Tennessee has debatably been the worst pass defense this season.

THE DFS GEMS

Derrick Henry, TEN – $8,300 on DraftKings. King Henry is underpriced here for this potential smash spot. The Henry Nov/Dec splits are real and I want to continue to be overweight on him.

Joe Burrow, CIN – $6,700 on DraftKings. The nut passing spot and Burrow is $1,500 cheaper than Mahomes.

Tee Higgins, CIN – $6,900 on DraftKings. The targets and volume have been there but he just needs some TD variance to swing his way.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

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