NFL Week 11, Browns AT Bills

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Cleveland Browns +8 @ Buffalo Bills 41.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Browns VS PASS 26 // VS RUSH 32 // PASS 10 // RUSH 3 // OVERALL 15

Buffalo VS PASS 5 // VS RUSH 6 // PASS 4 // RUSH 21 // OVERALL 1

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

Cleveland enters this game off a 22-point loss to Miami, which was their 5th loss in 6 games. It will not get any easier as they travel to play an unhappy Buffalo Bills team who blew a big 2nd half-lead last week. To have success this week Cleveland needs to lean on Nick Chubb this week and establish it to also keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible. Chubb is averaging just over 100 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry, scoring 11 touchdowns. The Bills are giving up an average of 30 points per game to the RB position over their last 3 games. Donovan Peoples-Jones remains underpriced in the mid-4 K range. He caught 5 of 9 targets last week for 99 yards. There is the potential for heavy snow in Buffalo this week and that could mitigate the passing games. Amari Cooper continues to struggle on the road only catching 3 passes for 32 yards last week and is back on the road this week. Kareem Hunt is always in play for large-field GPPs.

Buffalo comes off a brutal loss last week and looks to right the ship here vs a poor Browns team. To the surprise of many Josh Allen played despite not practicing last week. Allen played very well completing 67% of his passes, throwing for 330 yards and 1 touchdown. Allen did have a couple of key mistakes throwing two interceptions with the final one costing them the game. Devin Singletary found the endzone twice last week and has flashed upside a few times this season. With the projected weather we could see more of Singletary with possibly up to 15+ carries. Nyheim Hines played 6 snaps last week and is another guy who could see increased run here. The matchup is good for these Buffalo wideouts but I worry about the possible weather. Diggs is priced at 8.3K and always has the upside even in bad weather to find the endzone multiple times. Gabe Davis caught 6 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown last week and his price went down. Buffalo’s defense is priced up but is in consideration for this game as we could see some ugly football and a possible defensive touchdown or two.

The major thing to monitor with this game is the weather as there are reports Buffalo could see upwards of 2 feet of snow this weekend. I would want to lean toward the running games and defenses if this turns into a snow game. Back in 2017 16.7 inches of snow fell in Buffalo when they played the Colts. Buffalo won that game 13-7. This weekend the early forecast is anywhere between 1-3 feet of snow. The total has already dropped 2.5 points from 44 down to 41.5.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Josh Allen, BUF – $8,500 on DraftKings. The offense should still all run through Allen here and his rushing upside should play a key role.

Nick Chubb, CLE – $8,200 on DraftKings. I would only consider him for large-field GPPs but Chubb always has the ability to find the endzone multiple times in a game.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

Article produced by SNYDER  

 

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