NFL Week 10, Browns AT Dolphins

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Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Miami Dolphins 48.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Browns VS PASS 18 // VS RUSH 30 // PASS 8 // RUSH 2 // OVERALL 11

Dolphins VS PASS 31 // VS RUSH 7 // PASS 1 // RUSH 21 // OVERALL 12

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

The Browns went into their bye week off a big win vs Cincinnati. Nick Chubb rushed for 100+ yards for the 4th time in 6 games. Chubb also found the endzone twice vs the Bengals bringing his total up to 10 for the season. Donovan Peoples-Jones caught 4 passes for 81 yards. This was the 5th straight game Jones has caught 4 or more passes and his price remains a value at 4.3K. Amari Cooper led the team in receiving yards catching 5 passes for 131 yards and one touchdown. Cooper has found the endzone in 5 of 8 games this season. David Bell is a deep dart throw for large field GPPs at 3.3K but has caught a pass in his last 7 games but plays limited snaps. Harrison Bryant busted last week playing on 53 of 72 snaps and not even seeing one target.   

The Dolphins were in a trap spot last week traveling to Chicago and got down early but Tua and Tyreek were just too much for the Bears. Tua completed 21 of 30 passes for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill is having his best season ever even after leaving Mahomes. Hill is on pace for over 2,000 yards receiving this season after catching 7 passes for 143 yards and one touchdown. Hill averaged over 20 yards per catch. Jaylen Waddle remains a value to Hill priced at $1,500 cheaper. Waddle caught 5 passes for 85 yards and one touchdown. This was Waddle’s 4th straight game with 85+ yards receiving. Jeff Wilson out-snapped Raheem Mostert in his first game with Miami 28-27. Gesicki’s snap count has dropped in his last 3 games playing only 28 snaps last game and 31 and 38 in the two previous.

Every time Miami takes the field there is a good chance a shootout could break out. Cleveland is allowing 25 points per game this season and Miami has scored 30+ in back-to-back games. Miami is also allowing 25 points per game on average this season. The total in this game has moved up from 47.5 to 48.5. This game has the chance to go nuclear and want to stack this game up in many different ways. A way you could bring back a Tua stack is with Nick Chubb and playing for the Browns to get up early on the back of Chubb and then Tua in catchup mode. I will only be targeting the Dolphins pass game but both the run and pass game of the Browns.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Nick Chubb, CLE – $8,100 on DraftKings. Chubb has a high price tag but should keep his ownership to around 5-8%. This is a matchup where I think Chubb is able to average over 5 yards per carry.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE – $4,200 on DraftKings. Solid volume for his value price tag and is averaging over 10 points per game over the last 4 weeks.

Tyreek Hill, MIA – $9,100 on DraftKings. Hill is averaging just under 25 DK points per game this season and is on pace to reach 2K yards.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS

Article produced by SNYDER  

 

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