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New England Patriots +3.5 @ Miami Dolphins 46.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Patriots VS PASS 3 // VS RUSH 10 // PASS 10 // RUSH 7 // OVERALL 4
Dophins VS PASS 9 // VS RUSH 17 // PASS 23 // RUSH 29 // OVERALL 25
SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with.
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The Patriots open the season as a road underdog and have plenty of questions to be answered, most importantly how they will replace longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Mac Jones will be looking to take the second-year leap but will have to do so with a new OC. New England comes off a 10-win season and looked to improve their receiving corps with DaVante Parker (4.8K) who they acquired via trade from Miami. Jakobi Meyers (4.3K) was the favorite target down the stretch last season. Meyers was targeted at least 8 times a game over the last 6 games of the season. I look for both Damien Harris (5.7K) and Rhamondre Stevenson (5.5K) to have a role this year. James White is gone, and I look for Stevenson to take over as the 3rd down and passing down back this season. Harris should be the No. 1 back again this season coming off a 929-yard, 15 touchdown season. Hunter Henry (3.8K) makes for a nice salary saver at the tight end position. Henry caught both targets in the preseason game vs the Raiders and was targeted at least 5 times in 5 of the last 6 games to end last season.
The Miami Dolphins have a solid team total at 25 points and have made many off-season moves. The passing game added deep threat Tyreek Hill (6.8K) to pair with the speedy Jaylen Waddle (6.4K). The Dolphins also added running backs Chase Edmonds (5.2K), Raheem Mostert (4.8K), and Sony Michel (4.7K). Tua has faced plenty of adversity with all the offseason rumors of Miami being interested in Tom Brady and Jimmy G. Tua is in a great situation to elevate his play this season with Hill and Waddle both able to take the top off defenses and give Defensive coordinators nightmares. The coaching staff is allowing Tua the opportunity to throw the ball more downfield this season and teammates have seen a much more confident QB this year.
I look for Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins to come out strong in their first home game and send a message to the division that they have revamped their offense to pair with their strong defense. I think we see Tua take many deep shots early and show that he can still sling the rock. Tua double stacks are in play this week as Waddle and Hill both have high ceilings and will be the two main targets for Tua. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see both Hill and Waddle catch a deep ball as I think this will be a long season for New England. Raheem Mostert is fine for large field GPPs and has that homerun threat while healthy.
THE DFS GEMS
Tua Tagovaila, MIA – $5,700 on DraftKings. Great price point for Tua and easy to stack him up this week with the softer pricing. He is ranking as one of the best values of the week at the QB position.
Tyreek Hill, MIA – $6,800 on DraftKings. We were used to playing Hill in the 8K range when he was in KC and I look for Miami to showcase him in his debut.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA – $6,400 on DraftKings. Waddle has returned to practice and is on track to play in week 1. Waddle should come in low-owned this week with people gravitating to Hill. Waddle saw double-digit targets in 7 games last season and has the ability to break the slate.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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