NFL WEEK 1, PACKERS AT VIKINGS

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GREEN BAY PACKERS -1.5 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

PACKERS VS PASS 16 // VS RUSH 28 // PASS 2 // RUSH 8 // OVERALL 8

VIKINGS VS PASS 13 // VS RUSH 25 // PASS 12 // RUSH 27 // OVERALL 16

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY 

The Aaron Rodgers led Packers are looking to repeat their 13-4 season from a year ago and looking to move further in the playoffs. Seems like a tough ask after losing all world WR Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. Their presumed WR1 this season, Allen Lazard is likely out this week leaving them the likes of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb. As far as DFS, Cobb and Watkins would be my favorites as Watson is priced up at 5100 and there is no clear cut role for him as of now. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon ended the season last year basically in a 50/50 timeshare. Both are in a PRIME matchup here as the Vikings Rushing DVOA ranked 25th last season. Dillon had 8 TDs on the season last year and Jones finished with 10. On DK this week, Dillon is 1400 cheaper than his counterpart and is my preferred target. TE Robert Tonyan is coming off PUP after tearing his ACL in week 8 last season. I doubt he suits up this week. Josiah Deguara would be a GPP dart at only 2900.

Kevin O’Connell is replacing Mike Zimmer this season as the head coach of the Vikings this year. THANK GOD. O’Connell will implement a more Pass heavy offense which is great for both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. I think Jefferson will push 2k yards this year and lead the league in receiving yards. He will be in play almost every week for me and this week is no different. Cousins and Jefferson stacks make a ton of sense this week and shouldn’t be that high owned. Dalvin Cook is looking to have a fully healthy season after missing 5 games last season. I will def prefer the passing attack from this offense this season but will pick my spots with Dalvin. I wont have any this week, however. TE Irv Smith Jr. is primed for a breakout campaign after missing the entirety of the 2021 season. At 3400 on DK, he makes for an excellent punt TE option this week.

This is another game that has game stack written all over it. You can play either QB here and get multiple pieces from both sides. I am really liking a Cousins/Jefferson/Smith stack and running it back with AJ Dillon or Randall Cobb/Watkins. The Minnesota side will def be higher owned so maybe going Rodgers side is the way to get different.

THE DFS GEMS 

AARON JONES, GB – $6,700 on DraftKings. Will be a popular option on this slate. AJ Dillon is the GPP pivot. Both should see expanded roles in the passing game.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON, MIN– 7,800 on DraftKings. Just a total STUD. Incredible upside in any matchup under Kevin O’Connell’s new pass heavy attack.

IRV SMITH JR.,  MIN – $3,400 on DraftKings. Primed for breakout campaign and dirt cheap here. Great play this week.

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS 

Article produced by garyuscg14

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