NFL Week 1, Jaguars AT Commanders

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Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ Washington Commanders 43.5

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

Jaguars VS PASS 31 // VS RUSH 19 // PASS 30 // RUSH 18 // OVERALL 32

Commanders VS PASS 28 // VS RUSH 7 // PASS 22 // RUSH 19 // OVERALL 22

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

The Urban Meyer experiment is over in Jacksonville and in comes Doug Pederson. Pederson was great in Philly helping to keep Nick Foles out of trouble and setting him up for success. Pederson will look to keep Lawrence away from the bad throws and multiple mistakes he made as a rookie. The Jaguars brought in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram to help solidify the passing game. Marvin Jones remains with the team and was a common target for Lawrence last season. Jones averaged just under 7 targets last season but only hit the 100-yard bonus once. James Robinson looks to be ready for week 1 but I wouldn’t project much work for him coming back from the Achilles injury. Travis Etienne is fully healthy heading into the start of this season and Jacksonville will be looking for the big play upside he brought to Clemson. Etienne totaled 55 plays of 20+ yards on the ground in his college years. The 5.6K price tag and his ownership being around 5% makes him a solid upside target for GPPs.

Washington begins the season with new quarterback Carson Wentz who has shown some upside at times but also has been mistake-prone. Washington drafted receiver Jahan Dotson, who looks to make an immediate impact in this offense. The week 1 price tag is very tasty for GPPs at only 3.4K with him being an unknown commodity. Terry McLaurin is priced at 6.5K and has the big play upside. Jacksonville was one of the worst teams vs the pass last season making this an intriguing spot for large field tournaments. Brian Robinson looked to be in the driver’s seat to head this rushing game before the tragic news of him being shot. Antonio Gibson is bolstered back into the starting lineup after being demoted to kick return team. Head coach, Ron Rivera has come out and said they are going to give him the football and have trust in him. Gibson ranked 4th in the NFL last season in carries with 258 and was just one of seven players to reach 1,000 yards rushing. JD McKissic will remain the passing down back and could see some touches in the backfield as well.

This looks like it could be a sneaky shootout with both passing defenses ranking near the bottom at 28 and 31 last season. The Jaguars have a revamped offense this season and Lawrence should take the 2nd year leap here with an improved coaching staff and receiving options. Wentz gets another fresh start here with a couple of upside receiving options and facing off against the 2nd worst pass defense from last year.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Travis Etienne Jr, JAX – $5,600 on DraftKings. Etienne flashed mega upside in Clemson both on the ground and through the air. Travis is priced as the 23rd back on the slate.

Jahan Dotson, WASH – $3,400 on DraftKings. Great matchup here with most of the attention going to McLaurin and Dotson being an unknown commodity.  

Antonio Gibson, WASH – $5,800 on DraftKings. Gibson was getting talked down all preseason but is now back in the lead role. The great price tag for him expected workload vs a poor Jags defense.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS 

Article produced by SNYDER  

 

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