NFL Week 1, 49ers AT Bears

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San Francisco -7 @ Chicago Bears 41

 

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

49ers VS PASS 15 // VS RUSH 2 // PASS 5 // RUSH 4 // OVERALL 6

Bears VS PASS 12 // VS RUSH 24 // PASS 26 // RUSH 23 // OVERALL 24

SOURCE: footballoutsiders.com – DVOA rankings are based off 2021 numbers until we have more data to work with. 

 

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MATCHUP SUMMARY

The 49ers open the season with a soft matchup vs the Chicago Bears. This is now Trey Lance’s (6K) team and he has had a shaky camp, to say the least. His rushing upside makes him a strong boom-bust upside target. I expect Shanahan to lean on the run game more here and give Lance some easier looks early on this season. Eli Mitchell (5.4K) is back at practice and is poised to be the primary back in this rush offense. Jeff Wilson looks to be the backup but is priced too high for my liking at 5.1K just $300 cheaper than Mitchell. Deebo Samuel (7.4K) will line up all over the field and should also see some carries out of the backfield. I would project Samuel to have 5-8 carries in this game and be active in the passing game. Brandon Aiyuk (5.2K) has been rising up draft boards all offseason and looks to have a solid role in the offense this season. George Kittle (5.9K) is a top-tier Tight End player and should be a good safety valve for Lance this season. Kittle has erupted for some big games at times and is always in play.

The Chicago Bears lost top receiver Allen Robinson to the Rams this offseason and will rely on Darnell Mooney (5.7K) to carry the load in the passing game. Justin Fields (5.6K) enters his second season and will need to rely on his legs at times again this season. The Bears have the lowest implied team total this week and look to be an easy cross-off outside of the Milly Maker. Cole Kmet (3.7) was serviceable last year and is in play if looking for a cheap tight end. I think the Bears will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and will be looking to avoid them.

The 49ers are a 7-point road favorite here and should be able to take care of business rather easily here. The low total in this game should keep people away from playing it but the 49ers still hold a 24-point team total. Eli Mitchell is a solid value for GPPs and should be under 5% owned. George Kittle makes for a nice one-off play in GPPs as well and should also be under 5% owned.

 

THE DFS GEMS

Eli Mitchell, SF – $5,400 on DraftKings. Has returned to practice and looks to be ready for week 1. I think the 49ers look to establish it this week and get in and out of Chicago with an easy win.

Trey Lance, SF – $6,000 on DraftKings. Lance has been shaky at times but holds great upside with his legs.

George Kittle, SF – $5,900 on DraftKings. Top 5 tight end in the league and should be unowned this week. Has shown a big ceiling many times in the past.

 

Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS 

Article produced by SNYDER

 

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