NFL Bets Blog – Week 1

The purpose of this blog is finding value bets from the Sunday afternoon NFL slate. The Blog is written on Friday so lines and odds are subject to change before kickoff.


NFL is Back

The Bills and Rams kicked off the season Thursday night, with the Bills giving the defending champs an absolute beat down. It was a great game to start the season on, even if Allen Robinson ruined my DFS line up. I’m looking forward to a great season, while dishing out some of my favorite value plays of the week. Here are some of my favorite picks from this coming Sunday.


Saints V. Falcons, Saints -5.5 (-115)

To put this plainly, the Falcons stink. They were bad with Calvin Ridley and Matt Ryan, losing them is just the icing on the cake. Marcus Mariota has taken the starting spot in Ryans absence, but their only real offensive weapon is TE Kyle Pitts. He’s an incredible player but I’m not convinced he alone will be enough. The Saints on the other hand should be a solid team, being one of the better defenses in the league last year while adding the Honey Badger to make their secondary even more effective. The Saints offense is their only question mark, mostly Michael Thomas who was listed as questionable as I write this, but I can see this team putting up a fair amount of points against a poor Atlanta defense, making a 5.5 point spread very doable.

Packers V. Vikings, Vikings ML (+100)

This will be the Packers first real game without Adams, and there isn’t enough ayahuasca in the world to convince me that Allen Lazard is going to fill those shoes. Rodgers may be the reigning MVP but his lack of talent at receiver could really limit his abilities and put a lot of pressure on their run game to dominate. While the Packers have an excellent defense they’ll be going up against one of the best receiving cores in the league. Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen can never be over looked no matter how good the secondary is. Combine them with Dalvin Cooks running ability and Green Bay will certainly have their hands full. I think the Vikings being underdogs on their home turf for this game is criminal and I can’t pass up on that.

Raiders V. Chargers, Over 52.5 (-110)

I love the over for this game. The Raiders had a solid offense last season, adding in a weapon like Davante Adams puts them up there with some of the leagues best. The Chargers on the other hand have their own arsenal for Herbert to choose from while they go against a Raiders defense that has been less than great at times. Both of these offenses can run up the scoreboard, week 1 is where defenses struggle the most in my eyes as they get back into game speed so we could see a real shootout in this divisional match up.


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