Betting Spread – Ravens -3.5. Total 54.
We have a potential match-up of the year here setup on a Monday Night. Two of the flashiest players in the NFL in Jackson and Mahomes going at it in what expects to be a shootout. These two met last year in a game utterly dominated by the Chiefs aside from letting Lamar work his way back in the 4th quarter to end the game 33-28 Chiefs, but this game was not nearly as close as the score indicated. The difference was that game was in KC and this time around it’s in BAL, but with lack of true home crowds does this really matter all that much.
Approaching this game from a betting angle, you nearly have to take the 3.5 with the Chiefs. In one game samples, of course anything could happen, but what have the Chiefs shown this year to say they deserve to be bigger than a field goal hook here? Also, I’ve said this before, the Ravens are looking more and more like the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA. A team that absolutely dominates inferior competition, but struggles severely against elite teams. Here again to start, they blow out the Browns and Texans and now draw KC. Last year, the only elite team I’d give them credit for beating bad was the Rams. To be clear, this is not a true putdown to the Ravens. This is an elite team on all fronts lead by one of the most electric players in the sport. I’m just referencing that the Ravens don’t enjoy playing teams who match them score for score. The Chiefs did it last year along with the Titans.
If this was true home field, I’d give the Ravens respect here. There’s also the idea that last year these two met and the spread closed at Ravens +4.5 after opening +7. Now, granted this was obviously in KC and I think people were still skeptical on this new Ravens offense at the time, but even at the closing line that would have this game Ravens -1.5 if home field was true. Did the Ravens really improve by 2 points since week 3 of last year or the Chiefs degrade by 2 points since? I personally do not think so at all. Numbers wise, you’d have to lean Chiefs.
I won’t go into heavy detail with both team’s path to victory here, as I believe it’s pretty obvious at this point. Both teams have weapons all over the place offensively. I certainly give the defensive edge to the Ravens, but I give the offensive edge to the Chiefs. In a game that could very well include plenty of back and forth scoring, the winner of this game will more than likely be the team who turns the ball over the least and who performs better in the red zone. It seems obvious right, but I see so often people break down games and not even talk about turnovers or red zone scoring. These are two critical pieces for how games are decided and tonight will be no different.
As for the total, last year’s total was 55 and it landed over with some backdoor heroics from Lamar Jackson. I have the total as a fair one and will stay away. We know both teams can score, but I would assume the Ravens will do all they can to take the air out of the ball tonight. If game script plays out well for them, they could limit possessions and keep this total under.
My favorite prop from this game is a Marquise Brown prop on Fanduel. Marquise Brown longest reception OVER 21.5 yards -113. Before his injury last year, he did this in 3 of 4 games. The ankle injury suffered on October 6th, really slowed him down the rest of the way, but he looks just as explosive again to start the year. He’s gone over this twice always this year and was peppered with targets last year vs KC with many opportunities to go over this number as did. I have this number quite a few off especially with how the run game will setup quite a few downfield shots and this is their home run guy.
Just those two bets for tonight. As always stay disciplined and may the odds be ever in our favor.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
KC +3.5
Marquise Brown OVER 21.5 Yards
