Eagles (21.5) AT Chiefs (23.5)


Jalen Hurts and the Eagles travel to KC as both teams enter tonight’s Super Bowl rematch off bye weeks. Hurts is priced at 11K flat tonight and will be tough to get multiple studs in with the tight pricing. Hurts has been one of the most consistent QBs in the league scoring 25+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games and holds the 40-point upside with his rushing. Hurts has been elite throwing the ball as well completing 73%+ of his passes in the last 3 games. I ran a base sim run using Risk Adjusted ROI with 2 uniques on Saber Sim and Hurts hit the Captain spot at a 14% clip. I will try and get above that tonight on him in the Captain and 50%+ in the Flex. Hurts has a Pass/Rush prop of 280.5 yards tonight. Hurts is +110 to score a touchdown.

Patrick Mahomes is priced just ahead of Hurts at 11.2K tonight and has not been as consistent of a fantasy point scorer with only 2 of his last 6 games totaling 20+ DK points. I will mainly be looking to use Mahomes in the Flex position tonight. Mahomes hit the Captain spot in 11% of Sims in the base run. Mahomes has been more mobile this year rushing for at least 20+ yards in all but 1 game this season. Patrick has a Pass/Rush prop of 314.5 yards tonight.


D’Andre Swift comes in at 8.4K tonight as there is limited value to the skill players tonight making it tough to build lineups. I would be looking to play Swift if a rush-heavy game script tonight. Swift is hitting the Captain in only 4% of Sims in the base run lower than his projected Captain ownership. This is pointing towards him being a better Flex option than Captain and that is the way I will play him tonight. Swift is a good bet to score 13-16 fantasy points in my opinion tonight but hasn’t shown much of a ceiling outside of one game early on. Kenneth Gainwell should continue to see around 25 snaps and should get around 6-9 fantasy points tonight. The 4.4K price tag is much-needed value for us tonight and will look to get overweight on him in the Flex. Swift has a rush/rec prop of 81.5 yards tonight and Gainwell has a 24.5-yard prop. Swift is +150 to score a touchdown.

Isiah Pacheco has one of the softest tags on the slate for his potential upside at 7.2K. Pacheco has struggled the last 2 games after putting up 15+ DK points in 4 of 5 games. I think we will see Pacheco used more in the passing game tonight and will be overweight on him in the Flex spot. Jerick McKinnon is priced higher at 5.6K tonight than he has been in the last 5 showdown slates. McKinnon is priced too high for me, and he only hit the Flex spot in 3 of 150 builds in the Sims. I will have around 5% in the Flex if not fully fading him. Pacheco has a rush/rec prop of 68.5 and McKinnon has 22.5 yards. Pacheco is +115 to score a touchdown.


AJ Brown’s 10.2K has been elite this year and is averaging 28.5 DK points over the last 7 games. Brown is tied with Kelce for the highest owned in the Captain spot in the Sims at 20%. Brown is projected to be around 14-18% owned in the Captain spot tonight and I will be overweight on him in both the Captain and Flex positions. Brown will see a tough matchup tonight but has still produced in other tough matchups this season. DeVonta Smith has found the endzone in back-to-back games and is a great GPP Captain option tonight. If the Chiefs try and take away Brown tonight Smith has the speed and upside to nuke this slate. Smith looks to be the 7th highest owned in the Captain and was hitting around 5% in the base Sims. Julio Jones 2.6K should play around 20-30 snaps tonight and could be incorporated into the passing game more off the bye week. Zaccheaus is 1.2K and makes for a solid GPP punt flex play. Receiving props are Brown 82.5, Smith 58.5, Jones 11.5, and Zaccheaus 11.5 yards. Brown is +130 to score a touchdown and Smith is +230.

The WRs are tough to gauge on the Chiefs side of the ball. Rashee Rice has been my favorite target this season for the Chiefs and he has a fair price tag of 7.4K tonight. Rice has found the endzone in 3 of his last 5 games and should see 5-7 targets tonight. Rice is hitting the Captain is 3% of the Sims and I will be around 3-5% as well. The 5 other WRs are tough to gauge who pops tonight. Toney is priced at 4.2K and has been touchdown or bust. MVS is priced at 3K and has caught 2 or more passes in the last 3 games playing about half the snaps. Hardman is 2.8K caught 3 passes vs Miami for 10 yards and could be more incorporated off the bye week. Justin Watson will also play around half the snaps and has an average reception of 20+ yards in 5 games making him a strong upside punt play at 2.4K. Sky Moore is there also at 3.4K. I would set a rule for Max 2 of these in my builds and look to play each at around 10-15%. Receiving props: Rice 43.5, Moore 15.5, Hardman 7.5, Watson 25.5, and MVS 17.5 yards.


Jack Stoll 3.2K and Albert O $400 will be the tight ends for Philly tonight with no Goedert. Neither is anywhere near the caliber of Dallas, and I would lean to Albert O or Grant Calcaterra as punt options to save salary. We could see Stoll catch a couple of passes. Stoll has a prop of 9.5 yards tonight.

Travis Kelce’s 10K sets up to be a great option tonight as the Eagles have allowed 23 and 19 points to tight ends the last 2 games. This is the lowest price tag Kelce has had on a showdown slate this year and is tied for the highest-owned Captain in the Sims at 20%. Kelce is off back-to-back down games and should smash here in primetime. I will be overweight on him in both the Captain and Flex positions tonight. Kelce has a 75.5-yard prop and is the slate favorite to score at -115.


We need value tonight and both defenses are priced down at 4K and 3.8K. Both defenses hit at 15-18% in the Flex in the base Sims run and I will be around 20-25% on each tonight for value. Elliott and Butker are priced at 5.2 and 5K flat. Both kickers have numerous games of 10+ DK points this season, and I will look to get overweight on them as well for value.


Travis Kelce (CAPT) + Jalen Hurts + Jake Elliott 6.2K left per position


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *