Bengals (14.5) AT Jaguars (24.5)
Jake Browning’s 8.8K isn’t going to push the ball down the field but could be serviceable with a value price for a QB. Browing’s yard per attempt should stay around the 6–8-yard range as we have seen from him in the preseason and last week vs the Steelers. I will be underprojecting him at around 14-15 DK points and see where he lands in the Sims. This Jags defense held Levis and Pickett under 14 DK points but did give up a big game to CJ Stroud last week. Browning has a passing prop of 217.5 yards and a 15.5 rush prop.
Trevor Lawrence has a soft price here at only 10.8K and will be a very popular target in both the Captain and Flex positions tonight. Lawrence has been very active rushing the ball near the goal line with 3 rushing TDs in the last 2 games. Last week he cooked the Texans secondary for 364 yards and has scored 28+ DK points in back-to-back games now. The rushing touchdown variance should come back to reality but he still holds a big passing upside. I would be surprised if his total ownership is under 80% tonight and I think he could approach 20% even in the Captain spot. I plan to be even with the field on him tonight. Lawrence has a pass/rush prop of 260.5 yards and is +340 to score a touchdown.
Joe Mixon has a tempting price tag of 7K flat but has not been too effective this season on the ground. Mixon rushed 8 times for 16 yards last week vs Pittsburgh but does hold a solid pass game role. I expect him to see around 4-6 targets in the passing game tonight. I generally don’t like to play him but the price tag is fair so I will project him for around 11 to 13 points and see where he lands in the sims. Trayveon Williams could steal some snaps from Mixon tonight but isn’t a guy I want to target much. I will project him for around 1 point and see if he hits any teams. Mixon has a rush/rec prop of 70.5 yards.
Travis Etienne 10.2K left last week’s game but did return before halftime and was able to total 86 yards. Etienne has a strong upside in the passing game catching at least 3 passes in 8 of the last 9 games. We should see him touch the ball around 20-25 times tonight with a great game script being a big home favorite. Etienne will push Lawrence for the highest owned Captain and I will be over the field on him in both positions. D’Ernest Johnson should see around 20-25 snaps tonight and could see an extra run if the Jags get up big. The price tag is a little high at 4.2K but I will still have him some in the Flex. Tank Bigsby will be a guy I under project and most likely fade. Etienne has a pass/rush prop of 84.5 yards and Johnson has a 27.5-yard prop.
Ja’Marr Chase is handcuffed to a degree without Joe Burrow throwing him the ball but is still one of the best WRs in the league. The price tag of 9.4K is very inviting and I think Browning looks to get the ball in his hands close to the line of scrimmage and let his talent win out. I won’t be able to get there in the Captain spot but do want exposure in the Flex. Tee Higgins logged full practices on Friday and Saturday and will be back this week to help out Browning. We get a fair price tag with Higgins and he will be another guy I look to mix in for the Flex spot. Tyler Boyd at 5.6K seems a little high with Higgins back but I will put in a fair projection for him and see where he lands at. Trenton Irwin should see a decrease in snaps and usage with Higgins back but if Cincy is down big could see some more run in the 2nd half. Receiving props are Chase 55.5, Higgins 39.5, and Boyd 29.5 yards.
On the Jag’s side of the ball, Calvin Ridley 9.2K is off back-to-back strong games finding the endzone 3 times. Last week Ridley was blanked in the first half but had a big second half catching 5 for 89 and 1 touchdown. Love the talent and upside Ridley brings and at only 9.2K will be a guy I am well overweight on in both the Captain and Flex positions. Kirk looks to be projecting better than Ridley and I disagree with that as Kirk has been more of a consistent guy scoring around 10-15 DK points but doesn’t have the upside that Ridley has. I will have Kirk in the Flex position but will be under the Captain position. Zay Jones is priced a little too high for me at 5.2K but will see how much he hits the Flex. Receiving props are Ridley 57.5, Kirk 48.5, and Jones 27.5 yards.
Cincy has a trio of tight ends with Tanner Hudson 4K flat heading the position. Hudson may not play a lot of snaps but when he is on the field they target him often. Hudson hasn’t played more than 21 snaps in the last 4 games but has at least 4 catches in each game. I will project Hudson for around 6 points and see where he lands. Sample and Smith are good punt plays at 1.2 and 1K flat and will be guys I want to get overweight on. Hudson has an 18.5-yard prop tonight.
Evan Engram has a fair tag of 6.2K and will be a guy I look to get overweight on tonight and will even sprinkle him in the Captain spot. Cincy has been vulnerable to the position this year and even gave up 29 DK points to the Steelers last week. 5 of the last 8 games the Bengals have allowed 15+ DK points to the TE position. Luke Farrell is listed as questionable but if he goes at 2.6K will be a cheapie I look to roster. Engram has a prop of 47.5 yards and Farrell has a 5.5-yard prop.
This Jaguars defense is priced too low for the way this game projects and the big spread. At 4.8K we could see them come in at around 40-50% total ownership but this defense has only scored 10 points total in the last 3 games. I will be underweight the field on the Jag’s defense as I prefer the kickers more. I will be fully fading the Bengals defense at 3.2K. I will be overweight on both kickers tonight. McManus 5K flat has scored double-digit points in 4 of the last 6 games and 6 times total on the year. McPherson has scored 9+ points in 3 of the last 5 games at 4.6K.
SNYDER MAIN CORE
Calvin Ridley (CAPT) + Trevor Lawrence + Evan McPherson 6.8K left per position