MNF Bills/Chiefs + Cowboys/Cardinals Picks 10/19/20

Betting Spreads
Chiefs -5.5 vs Bills. Total 55
Cowboys -1 vs Cardinals. Total 55


Chiefs vs Bills

Two Monday Night Football games which very well could become a trend during the latter half of the season with all the COVID protocols needing to take effect each week. Needless to say, we have a fun Monday night ahead of us all. I’ll first touch on the Bills/Chiefs game and then the Cowboys/Cards.

Which Bills team shows up tonight? The team that piled on points the first four weeks of the season or the team that looked helpless on both offense and defense. Regardless, this defense really hasn’t looked great this year despite all the talent on it. Some injuries for sure, but what NFL team isn’t dealing with injuries this season. Let’s assume White and Brown are back for this Bills squad. These are two big additions. John Brown stretches the field for Allen and opens all lot over the middle. Gabriel Davis filled in nicely, but he’s not the deep threat Brown is. Tre’Davius White is arguably the best corner in football and for a struggling Bills secondary, he’s more vital tonight against Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Zack Moss is back also who provides a big goal line back for Buffalo and to spell Singletary.

The Chiefs come into this one off some lackluster performances. They barely beat the Pats, but a win is a win and then their defense gets severely exposed against the Raiders. The Bills have a more explosive offense on many fronts, so you’d expect the Chiefs to once again struggle to stop another team. Mahomes also hasn’t looked himself lately, but this Bills defense may be just what’s needed to get his mojo back. Sammy Watkins is out for the Chief, but this team has so many weapons, it shouldn’t matter all that much.

I view this game in a few different lights. For one thing, the Bills TT is such a smash spot over at over 24.5. With Brown and Moss back, this offense will have key weapons back. Knox is out, but he’s not utilized all that much in the passing game anyway. The more the Chiefs score, the more the Bills will need to also. After a group of good games, the Chiefs finally got forced into a shootout and as crazy as it sounds couldn’t keep up. This Chiefs team has been used to having early leads (some big leads) and releasing the pass rushers on teams that had to become one-dimensional offensively. While this could script this way, I’ll take my chances on the Bills being better offensively here at home after last week. I would lean them plus the points if I had to take a side.

As for player props, I targeted John Brown. KC will look to slow down Diggs who has been a freak this season and upon Brown’s return, I’d expect Allen to get him involved more than usual. His props were low coming into this game and we have a nice edge assuming he gets his normal snap count. Game script could also play to a heavy passing role which helps Brown out. I like both his props for 0.5u over 42.5 REC and OVER 3.5 catches.

BEST BETS
Bills TT OVER 24.5 -103 (DK) – 1u
John Brown OVER 3.5 REC +122 (DK) – 0.5u
John Brown OVER 43.5 REC YD -110 (FD) – 0.5u
LEAN – Bills +5.5


Cowboys vs Cardinals

This game comes down to one true factor. How much is the drop-off from Dak to Dalton. I personally have this slightly less than 2.5 points. It’s nothing against Dak, but Dalton is a competent replacement. We haven’t seen Dalton much this season, but he had a near full year of snaps last season, so reps aren’t an issue here. Dalton will have a more talented crew around him than he’s ever had before including a very good offensive line. It won’t surprise at all to see him do well in this system. The biggest issue of all though is Dallas defense is still the same ole defense. Do we get a more motivated crew now post Dak? Maybe, but this team has holes everywhere. Their pass rush did show some life last game, so maybe this is something to monitor, but the Giants O-Line isn’t anything to brag about either.

The Cardinals come into this game off a nice win against the Jets, but these days is any win against the Jets any level of impressive? The Cardinals went from Super Bowl aspirations at 2-0 to barely a playoff team two weeks later with two real bad losses. As mentioned, they recovered nicely against the Jets, but nothing you can truly be impressed with all things considered. This offense runs through Kyler Murray who’s had some severe ups and downs. One thing Murray has enjoyed has been Hopkins to throw the ball to. Hopkins is primed for a big spot tonight with how #1 Wideouts have just torched this Dallas secondary thus far. Hopkins is the most talented WR this secondary will see and with multiple weapons to worry about, they can only shadow Hopkins so much. Really like him to ball out tonight in this spot and love his props over at the current numbers/pricing. I also like him to get into the end zone seeing him at slight plus money on DK to do so.

As for side on this game, I have a strong lean for Dallas ML. The opener for this game was Dallas -3 with Dak and you could argue even that was light. Even if you adjust this line slight over 2 points, there is still some slight value on Dallas ML. I don’t love this just because it’s tough to Trust Dalton in his first start with this team, but needless to say I prefer this side over the Cards.

Best Bets
Hopkins OVER 7.5 REC +108 – 0.5u
Hopkins OVER 85.5 REC YD -110 – 0.5u
LEAN – Cowboys ML -114

Two games tonight, so regardless be sure to bet within your means. We’ll have a live show tonight also targeting some value spots, but regardless, gamble responsibly. It won’t be long before Thursday Night Football is back and we’re at it again.

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