It is nice to have Sunday Night Baseball back regularly again and hopefully it lasts! A good ole Yankee/Red rivalry match-up to cap off the first full week of MLB. This first week has been filled with highs and lows from great baseball to the Marlins need to party in nightclubs. Hopefully, the Marlins don’t cost the rest of the league, but I’m very optimistic MLB figures it out and moves forward. Needless to say, we have an MLB game to talk about here.
The Yankees and the Red Sox used to be a classic rivalry every year, but this year it’s quite different. To put it simply, these teams are just going in different directions. The Yanks picked by many to come out of the AL this year and the Red Sox lack of starting pitching and loss of Mookie Betts has projected a grim year from them. They also already didn’t have a good bullpen, so tough to imagine they pop out of the AL East this year. With this said, it’s still very early and the Sox certainly have potent bats at the top of their order.
An interesting match-up here with James Paxton or Big Maple, as the ladies calls him is going against Austin Brice in what will be a bullpen day for the Red Sox. Something of note with the first two games in this series is that runs piled on early and these simmered down late. May be a spot worth targeting a back half under live if runs once again pile in early. Both these guys have not gotten off to tremendous starts their first go around, and are looking to change that here. Austin Brice had a pretty good year last year along with Paxton, so we’ll cut them some slack early on and mildly assume this start to the year has been an anomaly.
The Yankees have been very reliant on the home run ball thus far. Hitting 17 already in this early season and 17 of their last 18 runs scored actually have been via home runs. This doesn’t bode well to the idea that this team is getting base hits with RISP, but again it’s early. Worth noting, though this team with how power heavy they are, can rely on the home run ball a bit too much. Won’t be an issue against poor pitching, but as the season progresses, they’ll need to be prove more consistent there. The Red Sox have gone ice cold the past few days and they’ve actually been relatively cold since the start of the season. While Paxton can be hit and miss at times, this is tough for me to look past when trying to find the best angle for this game.
I know the ole run in first inning prop when Paxton is on the hill was money in 2019 and he got struck early again in his first start. I certainly lean that way as a target able spot, but many of you may not be able to get that down. It has been proven that something mentally is off with Paxton in the first inning of games. He then can settle down and figure himself out afterwards, but he really struggles during the first inning. Boston has been cold, but look for them to try to jump on Paxton early before he gets into rhythm. I’m personally not a huge fan of 1st inning wagers because they come with a tremendous amount of added variance. You could be targeting an over where the both halves of innings have men at 3rd base with less than 2 outs and the neither scores. You can have an under where it’s 5 up, 5 down, and a pitcher misses his spot to the 6th batter on an 0-2 count and gives up a homer. Both right calls and lose. With all that said, it’s difficult to look past Paxton’s 1st inning struggles and then don’t forget the Yanks could score too. Certainly a lean.
My favorite play for this game though is Red Sox team total UNDER 4 -118. I see this at Fanduel in NJ, but you can sit on this and wait for a better price. I’ll look to lock in my play around 4-5 PM on the sheet, but I just want you to know where my head will be at. I expect money comes in to bring the Yankees price down from -245 and the total to reach 10.5. When this happens, we’ll have correlated line movement on this Red Sox total.I don’t mind UNDER 4 -118, but I truly believe we can get better. I get Paxton in a spot where goes up against a freezing cold Rex Sox team with severe holes at the back of the lineup. Paxton does often find himself in jams, but he also proves he can get out of them. I think we get a better showing from him before he hands the ball back to arguably the best bullpen in baseball. We’ve seen the last few days how this bullpen has locked down the Red Sox, and I like that trend to continue.
All en all, there are many different angles we could approach here. The Yankees are playing well and the Red Sox simply aren’t but I would never lay -245 nor would I want to lay 1.5 runs with a home team at vig. Could streaks buck tonight and the Red Sox slap the ball all over Yankee Stadium? Of course, but I’ll lean on what’s been happening to keep happening. Cold bats typically don’t revive overnight, and I’ll ride Paxton’s arm with the bullpen. I know many always want a side to be picked, but in one game this is always difficult and I never force action. If you want a true side angle though, I’d lean UNDER 10.5 runs if it gets there (currently 10).
I will have my first full unit plays post early this week, but I am still sticking to 0.5 units for now. Good luck with however you approach this game and as always stay disciplined.
Sunday Night Baseball Pick –
Red Sox Team Total UNDER 4 -118 (Fanduel in NJ) | wait for this to move to a better number.
Sunday Night Baseball Leans –
Run in 1st Inning – YES -128 (Fanduel in NJ).
UNDER 10.5 (IF it gets there). Don’t like 10