JA Happ (NYY) vs Chris Mazza (BOS)
Betting Spread – NYY -150 vs BOS. Total 9.5
We are back with another Yankees/Red Sox rivalry on Sunday Night Baseball. Truth be told though, can we really call this is rivalry at this exact point in time? Sure, you can’t just remove the long history from these two, but these two are going in opposite directions these days. The Yanks have won 5 straight vs the Sox to open the year and the streak actually goes deeper if you include 2019. It was thought by some that with No Judge or Stanton, this Yankees team may struggle a bit with Boston this weekend, but simply not the case. The Yanks have put up 10 and 11 runs in games 1 and 2 respectively as they’ve gotten great production out of other guys. This lineup is deep even without Judge/Stanton and one name in particular who’s heating up at the dish is one Gary Sanchez. When Sanchez is cold, he is ice, ice cold, but when he’s hot, few see the ball better and can pile up homers the way he does in a short stretch. We’ve seen this a few different times now in his career. Now homering in three straight, he’s been really helping fuel this offense which truly hasn’t missed a beat without two of their star players. One thing of extra note on this game is the status of DJ Lemahieu who injured himself on a swing last night and left the game. Tests came back negative, but Boone was quoted saying he’s very sore. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if DJ misses this game. This would be another big loss as DJ is currently leading the AL in batting average at a robust .411.
This match-up brings JA Happ back to the hill, who has been anything but pleasant thus far. It’s not like he’s coming off a great 2019 either. A pure innings eater who was expected to be a stable back end of the rotation guy for New York, just simply hasn’t fit the bill to date. He’s had very limited action this year only seeing a total of 7 innings and he’s given up 8 earned runs and 3 long balls. His ERA is 10.29, and the advanced numbers don’t paint a different light. To put int simply, he’s been bad and not much projects better days ahead. He’ll be making his first start in over 10 days and it’s not like he’s drawing a soft lineup. Boston may have it’s pitching woes, but their lineup still has some heavy hitters especially from the right side of the plate. Happ was especially bad vs righties last year giving up a wOBA of .345 against them. Happ has overall good career numbers vs the Red Sox, but truly what does this mean? He’s a different pitcher nowadays. His velo his lower now than ever, he’s throwing some different pitches too, so I’m not someone who is looking at career numbers here, but yes they have been relatively good vs this lineup for Boston. If you’re looking for a lone bright spot, that is it.
On the other side of the hill is Chris Mazza for Boston. Here’s someone who’s been around multiple different farm systems, with very little actual MLB experience. With Boston being as desperate as they are to find arms though, this is who they are turning to. His low K rate in the minors and hard hit rate don’t exactly project well for long term success vs Major League hitters, but his sample is small. He did throw 2.2 innings of quieting bats about two weeks ago vs the Yankees though which may serve as some good confidence for him coming in. This is someone who last year for the Mets struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate, but to his credit kept the ball in the yard surrendering no home runs to date in his MLB career through about 19 innings.
From a betting angle, there’s a few different things I’m looking at here. We have two below average pitchers, but a juiced up line at 10 runs, so I’m not in love with the idea of the over. Even a F5 total of 5.5 is a big number to get. With how reliant these two teams tend to be on the home run ball, it’s simply tough to justify in either direction. JA Happ has been real poor and comes off a long break here, but Boston is simply not playing good baseball right now on all fronts. I have a team in the Yankees who are hitting well and even pitching well as a group. Winning as a whole is just as contagious as losing and these two teams each fit those bills respectively. I’m going to have an interesting approach here on betting this game. I will be laying 1/2 run with the Yanks F5 at -118 for 0.5 units. I personally am not in love with laying a run with JA Happ, but this makes the most sense. The Yanks should be able to keep hitting as they draw an inexperienced arm tonight who they saw a few weeks back. I’ll take my chances on Happ out-dueling Mazza through 5. Now, if the Yankees are tied or losing after 5 innings, I will be live betting the Yankees for 0.5 units. Boston simply doesn’t have much confidence at all right now. I will post in the discord exactly how I’ll be betting them, but 0.5 units will only be risked if the Yankees don’t lead after 5 innings. The other bet I’m on is a player prop for Gary Sanchez to get a base-hit at -139 for 0.5 units. He’s smoking hot at the dish and this price is not near adjusted enough for how well he’s seeing the ball right now. With Lemahieu potentially out too, I’d expect a little bump in the order for Gary as well. All en all, it’s 1 total unit risked, and if the Yanks aren’t leading after 5, it will be a total of 1.5 units risked. Good luck tonight with all your bets and may the odds be ever in your favor.
Bets for the Game
Yankees F5 -0.5 -118 (Fanduel in NJ)
Gary Sanchez OVER 0.5 Hits -139 – 0.5 units (DraftKings in NJ)
LIVE BET ONLY if Yankees are tied or losing after 5 innings on Yankees for 0.5 units (Check discord for exact bet whether ML or + runs.