Pitching Match-up: Lucas Giolito (CHW) vs Shane Bieber (CLE)
Betting Spread – Indians -140. Total 7.5
In the MLB these days, you won’t get many good pitcher’s duels like this one especially for a Sunday Night Game. We’ll start with Bieber, who’s just off to a tremendous start. He is someone who is not only in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball, many believe he already is. Three starts, over 21 innings, 35 Ks, ERA of 0.83 and his advanced numbers also back up his early success. He’s the real deal and now draws a White Sox lineup which has shown many Jekyll and Hyde signs this year. This Sox team has scored more than three runs just five times in fifteen games. Their season runs scored are also padded by the KC series where they beat up on bad pitching. Seeing Bieber here though isn’t exactly a recipe for them to find consistency with their bats tonight. Needless to say, the Sox are still over .500 due do some great pitching from their arms. So, why is this line only -140 and even opened up much lighter at -130? Everyone and their sister will want to back the Indians at the small tag right? Let’s pull back the curtain a bit.
The Indians go up against Lucas Giolito who has been off to a below average start especially when you consider how good he was last year. His advanced numbers paint a better picture for him onward though, so don’t fret over the early 5.17 ERA. When we talk about why one wouldn’t lay -140 or even higher here with the Indians tonight, it’s really comes down to the lack of offense that has been plaguing the Indians thus far. Yesterday broke the streak of F5 UNDERs hitting in Cleveland games and even the game total still went under. You don’t consistently hit F5 UNDERs because of your own good pitching. You do so because your own team also isn’t hitting. There’s one team in MLB not hitting at least .200 coming into today and that would be the Cleveland Indians. If you think the Pirates are bad this year, do realize that the Pirates currently have the same OPS as the Indians. Could yesterday’s one inning, six run burst be the spark the tribe needed? They did go cold again afterwards only plating one run through the final five innings though.
I ask you this question. If this game is played on opening day a few weeks ago, what is the opening line here? I truthfully believe the line would be Indians -115 | WhiteSox -105. Since Bieber has been so dominant and the game is being played in primetime, the books have to open this bigger to anticipate Indians money. So, they open the line at -130 which I still believe is a fair number, but the issue now is this line has since moved up past -145 at some spots. I hate to sound like a broken record on this, but the Indians just aren’t hitting. So, you’re laying -145 on the road with a team that’s worst in MLB at hitting at this present time. With that said, for how dominant Bieber has been -145 could appear like a gift. Our guy BigT, gave out Indians -130 very early this AM and he got in at the right time. The line has moved and it won’t surprise if this line moves into the -150s prior to game start.
I’ll touch on the total here and then the betting angle I have for this one. Again, if this is played on opening day, this total may open 8-8.5. It opens 8 very briefly here and is not 7.5 with juice on the under. I’ve mentioned how both teams are struggling to find consistency at the dish and now draw two opposing studs on the hill. The under makes sense at a surface level, but a number of 7.5 is a low one for this park and for these lineups. Betting an under here isn’t exactly something I love. Even a F5 under at 4/3.5 isn’t ideal and you’ll probably sweat this during quite a few innings. A simple walk and a blast and you’re halfway to at min a push/loss.
So, I basically skated around every bet that could be made right? I pointed out reasons why I wouldn’t bet nearly everything and you’re now left wondering why did I even read this article? I’ll tell you that I like to give you my entire perspective, so you can then better understand why I’m going to make the bet that I will. Don’t worry, the plane will land here shortly.
Two specifically angles I like and a player prop that hasn’t been released yet. The three of these will all be for 0.5 units. The first is I want to get the White Sox F5 +0.5 at -110 or better. As more money pours in on Cleveland, I’d expect this to open up. Once it does, I’ll add to the sheet. I know this goes semi against BigT’s full game bet on the Indians, but it’s not crazy to think this game is tied after 5 innings. Also, BigT got -130 on Cleveland. I’m wanting you guys to let that line go to -150 which then opens up the F5 +0.5 for the White Sox at a great number. We’re manipulating the market in our favor using that 20 cent move to our advantage giving us a nice middle with more reward than risk. The second bet I like is No run in first inning at -132. A home run would appear the way this goes over in the 1st inning, so I’ll take my chances there. The third which will be a player prop is Lucas Giolito’s K prop OVER. I’d expect this to be either 5.5 or 6.5. 5.5 will probably be at decent juice or 6.5 at dog money. I’m cool with either, but obviously prefer 5.5. The Indians are 4th worse in strikeouts and we will get a fair number here with Lucas. The Bieber K prop will probably be very high, which is why I’ll probably avoid it despite the White Sox also being K prone. The goal for me here is to go 2-1 and pitch up some pennies on this game which is overly very tough to cap. I like the bets we have here, just make sure you’re waiting for the right numbers.
Sunday Night Baseball Bets (All 0.5 units)
White Sox F5 +0.5 (WAIT FOR -110 or BETTER)
No Run Scored in 1st Inning (-132)
Lucas Giolito OVER 6.5Ks (-125)
Good luck with all your bets tonight folks and as always only bet within your means and stay disciplined.