Pitching Match-up – Jake Arrieta (PHI) vs Huascar Ynoa (ATL)
Betting Spread – Phillies -118. Total 9.5
Back to back weeks now with the Phillies and Braves on Sunday Night Baseball. This time around though, the game is in Philadelphia where last weekend we were in Atlanta. The Phillies will turn to Jake Arrieta who has certainly regressed from his Cy Young days with the Cubs, but having a decent year thus far and he’ll go up against the young Huascar Ynoa for the Braves.
Some would argue the Phillies have gone streaking. Now, winners of 5 in a row as they look to make it 6 with a sweep of the Braves at home. This team surprisingly though has not done it with hitting, but actually with pitching, giving up less than 3 runs per game during the stretch. Now, last week you guys know I targeted the F5 under and I was actually on the wrong half of the game. The total guys over F5 but the game lands under. I tried to be cute and fade the pens, and it actually cost me a win, but these things do of course happen. Was nice to still hit with Eflin’s K prop.
Onto this game today, Arrieta is by no means an innings eater these days, but he’s actually off to a better start this year than last. His issue is once again the long ball. He’s lost a bit of velo from this year vs last, but he’s countered this with throwing his cutter more than twice as much. He’s still getting hit semi-hard, but if he can keep the ball in the yard, I’d expect him to grind out a decent start here. I said last Sunday that I felt the only way we lose the F5 over was the long ball. Easy to say right and may sound obvious, but 3 homers in the first 3 innings wasn’t ideal.
On the other side we have the young righty Huascar Ynoa in what will look like a bullpen day of sorts for the Braves. He is by no means a great pitcher, but is serviceable. The Braves are also currently pitching well as a group only giving up 13 runs in their last 4. Just like hitting is contagious, so is pitching. I’d expect Ynoa to do enough to avoid heavy damage early before turning the ball over to the next guy in line.
I look at the two games from this series and just don’t see a lot of stick action. 12 total hits yesterday. 16 total hits the day before in 11 full innings. 12 out of the 16 runs scored in these two games have been via the home run. These teams are just not getting string hits and it was the same story for me last weekend coming in. I personally, do not like to rely on home runs to get the job done when betting overs as there is simply too much variance.
With all this said, I see a big number once again hanging with the F5 of 5.5. I like this again under at -117. You may argue about last week getting bit early and we would’ve won if I did full game under, but my logic is the same again. The Braves will be able to platoon innings 4-5 with bullpen guys and I like Arrieta to look to build momentum off his last good start. We have two teams that simply are not stringing hits together right now and will more than likely need multiple home runs to drive this over. I also worry about the Phillies pen who’s used their best arms the past few days and are assumed to not be available tonight after Arrieta departs. I’d consider the weather neutral tonight at about 75 degrees with a slight wind blowing in, so no harm no foul there.
Overall here, we have two below average arms, but two teams simply not hitting with consistency. Arrieta is better at home and I’d expect Ynoa to be able to grind outs as long as he avoids multiple long balls. He’ll likely be platooned afterwards which would also give an edge to the pitching. This is why I have the F5 5.5 under as favorable.
For my second bet, it will be back to the strikeout well against Braves bats. This team is striking out at a torrid pace and while Arrieta’s K numbers are down, this price is too juicy to pass up. I’m seeing Arrieta OVER 4.5 +134 on Fanduel in NJ, and I’ll lock that in for 0.5u. I’m certainly cool here at 4 at more vig as a safety net if your book has it. Good luck tonight with all your bets and as always, stay disciplined.
Sunday Night Baseball Bets
F5 UNDER 5.5 -117 (DraftKings in NJ) – 1 unut
Jake Arrieta OVER 4.5Ks +134 (Fanduel in NJ) 0.5 units