MLB Sunday Night Baseball | Braves vs Phillies 8/23/20

Josh Tomlin (ATL) vs Zach Eflin (PHI)
Betting Spread – ATL -108. Total 9.5

We have the Atlanta Braves hosting the Philadelphia Phillies this week in Sunday Night Baseball. Josh Tomlin going for Atlanta vs Zach Eflin for the Phills. The Braves go for the series sweep here after making a tremendous comeback vs this Phillies bullpen last night. Meloncon then blew the save but the Braves walked it off in the 9th anyway.

The Braves are missing some key bats right now, but still have won 5/6 games and looking to ride momentum into tonight. No Acuna, no Albies, no problem. This lineup is pretty deep and I never over analyze good players being out of ball games. People love to see one batter out and immediately think, “I need to now better the other side”. The lines begin to sway a silly amount and remember in baseball a batter will most often only have 4 at bats. So, you have to ask yourself is the the replacement player worth the market shift. I’ll tell you that most often it isn’t. Lines move 15-20 cents for single players not playing, and sometimes even more which is crazy. Needless to say, don’t overreact to this. It’s no surprise the Braves are playing well without a few of their stars, this team has a deep lineup.

As for the game here, these two teams are a tail of two stories. The Phillies have good starting pitching and an awful bullpen. The Braves has awful starting pitching and a good bullpen. We see it again here in this one where the Braves have to run out Tomlin as a starter. Tomlin has been nothing short of superb though and I think he continues to throw well here. His ERA has been great at 2.35 and the advanced numbers show he’s actually even better than this.

Zach Eflin’s surface numbers have been terrible, but as you unravel this onion, he’s also been tremendous. His K rate is absurd, his advanced peripherals have his real ERA in the mid 2s and his BAIP is .438. This will have to progress to the mean if he continues throwing like this. Walks are the only blemish right now for him despite coming off two four run performances back to back.

These two teams have hit the ball well all series, but have been a bit bailed out by the home run ball in terms of tallying numbers. With these two guys going tonight and a bit of an big number here up at 9.5, my first target is the F5 UNDER 5.5 -126. I think this may drop to 5/4.5 by game time but always tough to say as over money always hits the SNB game. Regardless, I like the spot for one unit. I have two pitchers who have thrown incredibly well to start and this number is a big one. Only way I see this going over is with a few long balls, which of course could happen, bu I’ll take my chances.

As for a player prop I like tonight, it’s Zach Eflin OVER 4.5 strikeouts +114 at Fanduel in NJ. This is someone who has struck out at least 5 in all three starts this year and goes against this semi degraded Braves lineup who’s 3rd in the league in strikeouts. The two teams above them both have one more game played too otherwise, the Braves would probably be 1st in all of baseball with the most strikeouts. For me, this is just too good to pass up. I don’t like betting more than 0.5 units on player props, as I know many can’t get down what they can on actual games, but this is a spot I really like.

Bets for the game
F5 UNDER 5.5 -126 (FD) – 1 unit
Zach Eflin OVER 4.5 K’s +114 (FD) – 0.5 units


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